Analysis

Could a hot war with Iran be about to start? Israel could strike against Iran's nuclear facilities; Syria is in revolt; the world is on edge. Edward Stourton probes the West's options.

Janan Ganesh of The Economist speaks to Downing Street's favourite intellectual, Nassim Nicolas Taleb - author of the best selling book The Black Swan - to investigate his political appeal.Producer: Mukul Devichand

Why Labour thinkers believe German society should be the model for Britain's centre left. Matthew Taylor, a former policy adviser to Tony Blair, presents.

Justin Webb explores what the primaries reveal about the state of the right in the US. Is the Republican party really split? We explore how the party has shifted to the right, and the reasons for it. The role of the Tea party within the conservative movement, and the effect it's having on the primary race. We look at what ideas the American right offers in the post financial crisis world -that might enthuse Americans and perhaps the rest of us too. And ask is the party ready to lead again.Contributors: Henry Olsen, Vice President, American Enterprise Institute Professor Francis Fukuyama, Stanford University Michael Lind, New America Foundation and Author of "Land of Promise:an Economic History of the United States" Michael Kibbe, President Freedom Works Thomas Frank, Author, "Pity the Billionaire" Jay Cost, Columnist, Weekly Standard.

It may come as no great surprise that many of us have experienced a wage squeeze, while the cost of living has gone the other way, since the financial crisis of 2008. However, as Duncan Weldon, a senior economist at the Trades Union Congress, points out, wages for most people in the UK began stagnating years before the crisis.We tend to think of the early 2000s as a time of relative wealth: house prices were rising, credit flowed easily, the government introduced a generous tax credit scheme and people generally felt better off. But Duncan Weldon argues these masked the reality of what was going on.Work done by the think tank The Resolution Foundation, which focuses on those on low and modest incomes, shows that there was almost no wage growth in the middle and below during the five years leading up to 2008 and yet the economy grew by 11% in that period. Others also point out that the share of the national income which goes into wages, as opposed to profits, has been decreasing since the mid-1970s. The argume

Europe thinks the unthinkable - what happens if the Eurozone splits. What would happen to the banking sector, how would a new currency be put in place, can contagion be halted, and more fundamentally could the Euro survive? Policymakers across Europe are putting their contingency plans together. We reveal what some of the preparations may be. Reporter Chris Bowlby runs through some of the scenarios of what may happen if a country were to withdraw, and crucially what would happen next. Contributors: Dawn Holland, National Institute of Economic and Social Research; Aristotle Kallis, Political Scientist; David Marsh, author "The History of the Euro"; David Lascelles, senior fellow of the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation; Mark Crickett De La Rue; and Larry Hatheway, UBSProducer: Kavita Puri.

Should the world fear the rise of political Islam in the newly democratic Middle East? The Arab Spring has thrust the ideas and ideology of one man into the centre of this crucial question. Before the revolutions began, Sheikh Rachid Gannouchi lived in Hemel Hempstead and was one of the world's leading Islamist ideologues, urging the Muslim Brotherhood to accommodate modate the ideas of secularism, democracy and acceptance of equal political rights for non-Muslims. But after the region begun to rise up against dictators, he has become even more powerful and his ideas have been tested as never before. He returned to his native Tunisia in 2011 and is now spiritual leader of Tunisia's largest political party, but his influence extends far beyond North Africa. As the Muslim Brotherhood and its ideological brethren try and find a place in a democratic world, his controversial ideas have won acolytes in the Arab World, Turkey and South East Asia.For Analysis, the BBC Radio 4 series that probes the ideas that shape

The government's brought in new style league tables to help parents choose schools. But do we really know what makes a good school? And how far can schools really transform lives? Researchers have long believed in a so-called 'school effect' that counters, at least in part, factors such as social and family background. But how easy is it to measure this kind of effect, and can parents really be given a clear guide as to which school is best for their child? Or has too much emphasis on factors such as social background made schools complacent about what they can achieve? Fran Abrams talks to head teachers, educational experts, the schools minister and the new head of Ofsted as she investigates what difference schools can really make.

Are the champions of the capitalist system now turning against the super-rich? And if they are, what will they now do about it? In this week's Analysis, we meet leading figures of the centre right who suddenly seem to have something in common with the political left: a moral aversion to the an era of high finance that saw huge payouts to a few, and bailouts funded by the rest. Prime Minster David Cameron opened 2011 with a speech criticising a system where "a few at the top get rewards that seem to have nothing to do with the risks they take or the effort they put in." He promises change, but how can that be achieved without undermining the logic of capitalism? Edward Stourton meets influential defenders of market forces who say they can keep the best of free trade but exclude the undeserving rich. Interviewees:Jesse Norman MP Matthew Hancock MP Nadhim Zahawi MP Charles Moore, former editor of The Daily Telegraph, The Sunday Telegraph and The Spectator Donald Winch, Emeritus Professor of Intellectual History

Certainty: is the lust for it a sin? And if so, should politics fear for its soul? Michael Blastland makes a plea for policy makers to be less sure of themselves in "Dead Cert", originally broadcast on 6 November 2008. We hope you enjoy this programme - which we offer you while Analysis is off air.

Banks are underwritten by the government in Britain. But should the taxpayer bail out so-called casino banks? In a programme previously broadcast on 1 February 2010 - Edward Stourton talks to the growing band of experts who believe that risk-taking investment banks should be forced to face the consequences of their losses. We hope you enjoy this programme - which we offer you while Analysis is off air.

In 100 years time, Charles Darwin will be viewed as a better economist than Adam Smith, according to economics professor Robert H. Frank. In his new book 'The Darwin Economy: Liberty, Competition, and the Common Good', Frank argues that whilst Smith was correct to point out the benefits of competition, Darwin went further by showing how some times competition over rank could produce benefits to the individual at the expense of the group. This insight, believes Frank, applies to the economics of human societies as much as it does to the animal kingdom.Recorded at The London School of Economics, Prof Frank explains his ideas to Paul Mason and an audience of economists and scientists, as well as the free marketeers he criticises.Robert H. Frank is an economics professor at Cornell's Johnson Graduate School of Management and a regular Economic View columnist for the New York Times, and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Demos. His books, which have been translated into 22 languages, include The Winner-Take-All Soci

Do Leaders make a Difference?We talk much of personal leadership being the key to change in, say, politics or business. But how much can such figures really influence events? Do we overattribute power to individuals such as a prime minister or a media mogul? Have we lost sight of the overall importance of collective action and attitudes, or the trends and events that no individual can resist? Michael Blastland investigates. Producer: Chris Bowlby Editor: Innes BowenContributors:Nick Chater Professor of Behavioural Science at Warwick Business SchoolProfessor Pat Thane Historian at King's College LondonChris Dillow Writer on economics and psychologyAngela Knight Chief Executive of the British Bankers' AssociationTristram Hunt Historian and Labour MPJerker Denrell Professor of strategy and decision making at Oxford University's Saïd Business SchoolLord Baker Former Conservative Home SecretaryAndrew Roberts Historical and biographical writer.

The 2010 general election saw the largest influx of black and minority ethnic MPs to the Commons that Britain has ever seen. There are currently 27 sitting on the Conservative and Labour benches - up from 14 in the last Parliament.But are we starting to see a 'new black politics'? Some suggest that the radical left-wing politics of the 1980s is no longer relevant in twenty-first century Britain, where there is a growing black middle class, a multitude of different black communities, and where black people are represented at the highest levels.David Goodhart meets the black politicians adopting a more socially conservative standpoint to their predecessors and also talks to their critics: those who say that some of the country's most vulnerable people have been forgotten by the establishment; that institutionalised racism still exists; and that many of today's politicians do not represent the people they are meant to serve. Interviewees include: David Lammy, Labour MP for Tottenham Shaun Bailey, former Conserva

Frances Stonor Saunders looks at the role of cultural diplomacy in spreading liberal British values around the world.The British Council and the BBC World Service, both part-funded by the Foreign Office, are the two most important institutions of British cultural diplomacy.The British Council organises exhibitions and events at its offices around the world with artists such as Grayson Perry. He feels that the fact his work deals with controversial themes is part of his attraction for the cultural diplomats keen to convey the values of liberalism by saying, "Look what we put up with in our country: a cross-dressing potter who's talking about the evils of advertising."The BBC World Service is editorially independent but is funded by the Foreign Office.Frances Stonor Saunders explores the tension between the fact that cultural diplomacy has an official purpose yet the endeavours it seeks to promote need to maintain freedom and independence as a mark of a liberal society.Contributors include Grayson Perry, Timoth

As opinion polls reveal that half the British population would vote in favour of withdrawal from the European Union, it seems the political class is catching up with public opinion when it comes to the EU. While perhaps just dozens of MPs are publicly calling for a referendum on the UK's EU membership, behind closed doors there are many more closet secessionists: at least 40 per cent of Conservative MPs according to one party insider. "In public I call for renegotiation of the Lisbon treaty. In private I argue for complete withdrawal from the European Union. And there are plenty of others like me," says one anonymous sceptic. Edward Stourton asks whether the crisis in the eurozone has emboldened more politicians to speak frankly on their attitudes towards EU membership and talks to supporters of withdrawal from both the left and right wings of British politics.Producer: Hannah Barnes.

Owen Bennett Jones looks at the Shia movement Hezbollah which has a big following in Lebanon but is regarded by some in the West as a terrorist organisation. It has a militia with more weapons than many European armies and wants Islamic rule but is in government with Christian allies. The British government draws a distinction between Hezbollah's military and political wings whereas the Americans do not. The French government would like to see Hezbollah disarm but do not regard them as terrorists. How the West sees the organisation and how it sees itself is central to stability in the Middle East but what exactly is Hezbollah and is it heading for another war with Israel?

Despite a general policy of austerity and cut backs, the budget for development aid has been ring fenced by the coalition government. Frances Cairncross asks whether a more relaxed immigration policy might be a better way for the UK to help the developing world. The official aid budget is dwarfed by a private form of help for the developing world: remittances sent home by immigrants working in richer countries. So should governments keen to help the developing world encourage migration and remittances as a replacement for state-funded aid? "They have the key advantage that the people who send them know the people who are supposed to be receiving them... There's less opportunity for corruption and for waste... and they might have lower overhead costs," argues Owen Barder of the Center for Global Development. Frances Cairncross, rector of Exeter College, Oxford and former managing editor of The Economist, explores the limits of this free market alternative to state-funded development aid.Contributors include: S

Under Colonel Gaddafi, Libya was subject to the dictator's so-called Third Universal Theory. Hugh Miles asks what sort of ideology is likely to dominate in post-Gaddafi Libya.Western media have been keeping a close eye on Libya's governing National Transitional Council, and there have been warnings about splits between Islamists and secularists, and about Libya's tribal society. But, as Hugh Miles discovers, amongst Libya's new ruling class there is broad consensus about support for one ideology: capitalism. Gaddafi's idiosyncratic economic and political philosophy fused elements of socialism and Islam. The suppression of free markets was at times taken to bizarre extremes with, at one point, the banning of the entire retail sector. Support for capitalism is perhaps a reaction to the years in which entrepreneurship was suppressed.Hugh Miles looks at the background of the new rulers and asks how Libyan Islamic capitalism might work.

This summer's riots provoked much speculation about the factors which prompted so many people to break the law. But philosopher-turned-commentator Jamie Whyte is more interested in understanding why this sort of thing doesn't happen more often. Is it fear of arrest or is it morality that makes most of the people abide by the law for most of the time? In search of the causes of mass civil obedience, Jamie Whyte speaks to leading experts in the fields of philosophy, psychology and anthropology.Contributors include: Roger Scruton, philosopher and writer Quentin Skinner, professor of the humanities & expert on modern political thought Tim Harford, the Financial Times Undercover Economist and presenter of More or Less on Radio 4 George Klosko, political philosopher Alex Bentley, anthropologist Carol Hedderman, criminologistProducer: Simon Coates.