Squawk Box Europe Express

CNBC is live from Paris where Emmanuel Macron has become the first French President to be re-elected in 20 years. The incumbent defeated his far-right rival with 58 point 5 percent of the vote. He told CNBC now is the time to get to work after divisive elections. National Rally leader Marine Le Pen conceded defeat, but hailed a stronger showing compared to 5 years ago and pledged to redouble efforts ahead of legislative elections in June. Global equities come under pressure, with US futures lower, after the Dow suffered its worst one-day loss since 2020 amid a four-week losing streak. Asian equities sink as Beijing races to contain an "urgent" COVID outbreak, while the death toll in Shanghai triples - dimming prospects of lockdown measures loosening. Earnings once again take centre stage with Alphabet, Amazon and Apple all reporting this week.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Treasury yields climb and global markets tumble as Fed Chair Jerome Powell tells CNBC during an IMF debate that a 50 basis point hike in May is firmly on the table. French election campaigning enters its final stretch, and polls show President Emmanuel Macron widening his lead over far-right challenger Marine Le Pen ahead of Sunday's vote. Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire tells CNBC exclusively that Macron is the only real option. Earnings season is ramping up, we take a look at Kering, which posted double digit revenue gains in the first quarter, but the French luxury group acknowledges that lockdowns in China have had "heavy consequences". And Elon Musk doubles down on his play for Twitter, saying he's lined up $46 bn dollars in financing to buy the social media giant, putting pressure on the company's board to negotiate a deal or come up with an alternative plan.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Netflix plunges with more than $50bn wiped from its market cap. Legendary investor Bill Ackman also takes a $400m hit to his Pershing Square fund as a result. EV maker Tesla reports record Q1 profits, this despite the shutdown of its Shanghai giga-factory during the mega-city’s ongoing Covid lockdown. CEO Elon Musk has told CNBC he hopes to avoid further price hikes. French presidential candidates Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen lock horns during the only televised debate before Sunday’s poll. The cost of living and the Ukraine-Russia conflict were front and centre in the two-and-a-half hour contest. Russia has announced the launch of a new ‘Sarmat’ ICBM capable of hitting multiple targets anywhere in the world.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Streaming giant Netflix suffers its first subscriber loss in more than a decade as consumers cut back on entertainment and the company forecasts worse to come. CEO Reed Hastings has suggested a cheaper advert-supported plan now “makes a lot of sense”. In banking news, Swiss lender Credit Suisse warns it will take a CHF200m hit in the first quarter through exposure to the war in Ukraine while also increasing its loan loss provisions from its latest string of scandals. Meanwhile, the IMF slashes its global outlook and warns of risks to financial systems. The fund’s Tobias Adrian tells CNBC that the Fed must act “aggressively” to tame spiraling inflation. And U.S. markets lead Asian equities into the green with bank and tech stocks and recovering oil prices fuelling the gains.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The World Bank has slashed its global growth outlook for the year as price pressures, the conflict in Ukraine and ongoing lockdowns in China begin to weigh. President David Malpass tells CNBC that it’s up to advanced economies to do more to subdue rampant inflation. St Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard tells us he would not rule out a 75-basis point hike in a single meeting, as the 10-year Treasury yield surges to its highest level for more than three years. And Twitter attempts to thwart Elon Musk takeover attempt with a ‘poison pill’. CNBC learns that private equity firm Apollo is in line to finance the buyout.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

JPMorgan sees Q1 profits slump by 42 per cent. The bank’s CEO Jamie Dimon explains that inflation and the war in Ukraine are “powerful forces that threaten the economy” and that could potentially cause recession. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq snap three-day losing streaks as producers prices soar at their fastest rate on record. Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller says the central bank must continue to work to bring inflation down. Ukraine is to receive up to $800m of heavy military aid from the U.S as the conflict intensifies in the east of the country. In energy news, crude prices are down after initially surging during yesterday’s session on fears over supply chain disruption and Russian oil.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

U.S. CPI hits its highest level since 1981 with energy and food prices soaring. But the core inflation read provides hope that price pressures may be peaking. President Joe Biden blames Russian president Vladimir Putin for the hike in costs. Biden also labels the Russian invasion of Ukraine as ‘genocide’ for the first time, while Putin declares peace talks with Kiev are at a ‘dead end’. Sino-Russian trade, meanwhile, rises almost 30 per cent in Q1 but imports from elsewhere are hampered by continuing supply chain disruption. And in luxury news, LVMH enjoys renewed demand for labels Dior and Louis Vuitton but CFO Jean-Jacques Guiony says the outlook in China remains opaque.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

U.S. equities tumble ahead of today’s inflation report with CPI forecast to hit its highest level in 41 years. All non-essential U.S. consular staff are ordered to leave Shanghai whose 25 million residents are locked down, battling the country’s worst Covid outbreak since the start of the pandemic. We speak exclusively to Mercedes Benz chairman, Ola Källenius, who says that the recent conflict-related spike in energy prices is a “wake-up call” for Europe. This, as OPEC nations warn the EU that Russian crude volumes would be almost impossible to substitute with further sanctions risking what could lead to one of the most damaging supply shocks ever.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen advance to the second round of the French presidential elections with both candidates increasing their voting share from 5 years ago. Some polls are predicting a Macron victory within the margin of error, but a member of Le Pen’s Rassamblement National tells CNBC his party is confident it can pick up votes from unsuccessful candidates. We are live in Paris for the latest. In China, consumer prices surge at their fastest pace in 3 months amid continuing disruptions to supply chains and high energy costs. And in Ukraine, President Volodomyr Zelenskyy has welcomed EU and UK leaders in Kiev over the weekend, while his country braces for a massive new Russian assault in the east.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The UNGA has voted to expel Russia from its Human Rights Council while NATO members have announced additional arms supply to Ukraine. Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has warned that, with the fighting shifting to the Donbas, the conflict is entering a new, intensified phase. In France, last-minute campaigning ahead of the Sunday’s presidential election first round sees Marine Le Pen closing the gap in the polls on incumbent Emmanuel Macron. France’s Minister for Transformation and Public Services, Amelie de Montchalin, tells CNBC a Le Pen presidency would weaken and damage France. And at Tesla’s Cyber Rodeo, CEO Elon Musk pledges to make half a million Model Y SUVs a year at the EV maker’s new plant in Texas.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Fed’s March meeting minutes indicate policy makers might be willing to adopt a more aggressive tightening schedule than previously thought. FOMC members are broadly in agreement to slash $95bn per month from the balance sheet over three months, probably starting in May. Half-point rate hikes are also highly likely to come into effect in future meetings. U.S. equities fall as a result, while the 10-year Treasury yield hits a three-year high. Back in Europe, EU nations have stopped short of a consensus on banning Russian oil outright as Washington takes aim at the Russian financial system and President Vladimir Putin’s family. With just three days to go before the first round of the French presidential election, we speak to Laurent Jacobelli, Grand Est regional president for Marine Le Pen’s RN party, who says the country “needs and wants change” after President Emmanuel Macron’s five years in power.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-

The U.S. moves to ban Russian investment and crack down on the country’s banks and state firms. Across the Atlantic, the EU launches a fifth round of sanctions aimed at coal exports and shipping. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy calls on the UN Security Council to launch Nuremburg-style trials to punish alleged Russian war crimes in his country. Meanwhile, U.S. and Asian markets take a dip, after Fed vice-chair nominee Lael Brainard indicates the central bank may seek more aggressive monetary policy tightening to combat inflation. And in China, the services sector has shrunk at its fastest rate in two years amid ongoing Covid lockdowns.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Ukraine has accused Russian troops of war crimes after hundreds of civilian deaths were revealed in Kyiv satellite towns. Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy has been joined by world leaders in condemnation of the alleged atrocities. European Union leaders promise more sanctions, while the bloc doubles down on its rejection of President Putin’s decree that all payments for Russian gas be made in rubles. The EU’s Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni has told CNBC that Brussels intends to strictly enforce energy contracts. Meanwhile, French electoral campaigns are heating up for May’s presidential vote. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron has seen his lead slashed with National Rally’s Marine Le Pen rising in opinion polls. In Hong Kong, CEO Carrie Lam has announced she will not seek a second term in office citing family commitments. And in autos news, Tesla reports a stellar first quarter, despite supply chain issues and a shutdown at its Shanghai plant.   See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/priva

Vladimir Putin issues a presidential decree to demand that “unfriendly” nations pay for energy bills in Russian rubles or have their supplies suspended. We are live on the shores of Lake Como where CEO of the European House Ambrosetti, Valerio De Molli, tells CNBC Europe’s energy strategy in the face of Russian aggression has been “naïve”. In the U.S., President Biden announces he will again tap American emergency oil reserves, releasing up to 1m barrels a day in a bid to calm pump prices. Investors are braced for today’s U.S. non-farm payroll job numbers as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge reaches a 40-year high. And, Beijing extends Shanghai’s staggered Covid lockdown, affecting manufacturing activity.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Crude prices fall on news that President Biden will release the largest ever volume of strategic oil reserves – the third time in six months. There are intelligence reports that Russian military top brass is deliberately misinforming President Vladimir Putin about personnel and territorial losses in Ukraine. Chinese March economic data suffers a double-whammy in March with both manufacturing and services contracting for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic. And in the U.S., markets are due to end Q1 following their worst performance since the start of 2020.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Russian negotiators announce there will be a dramatic scale-back of troops around Kiev after Ukraine agrees to take a neutral position regarding NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees. The Istanbul talks are met with scepticism. U.S. President Joe Biden says he is adopting a ‘wait-and-see’ approach. U.S. markets, however, close higher on hopes of tensions easing. Following a short inversion of the 2 and 10-year yields, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker tells CNBC that the move does not accurately predict a coming recession. We also hear from Italian Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio who says the West must maintain pressure on Moscow to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba says his country will not trade off its sovereignty but he hopes a ceasefire will result from today’s peace talks in Istanbul. U.S. President Joe Biden doubles down on his ad-libbed comments at the weekend regarding leadership change in Russia. G-7 nations have rejected Russia’s demand to be paid in rubles. German Finance Minister Christian Lindner says he will not stand for Moscow’s “blackmail”. Oil continues to plummet with Shanghai in its second day of lockdown while UAE energy minister Suhail Al Mazrouei tells this channel that Russia will remain a key player in Opec+. And the gap between the U.S. two- and ten-year treasury yields narrows to its lowest level since March 2020, raising recession fears.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Russia and Ukraine are set for renewed peace talks in Istanbul today. The White House battles the fallout from U.S. President Joe Biden’s Warsaw speech, denying it is targeting regime change in Moscow. We speak to TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyannée who says his company will not do business with Russian President Vladimir Putin but defends his refusal to completely write off the company’s Russian assets. Qatari foreign minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani says his country is boosting its gas exports to other nations as the Ukraine conflict continues.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

President Biden warns Russia of a strong response from NATO should it use WMDs in Ukraine. He touted the alliance’s renewed sense of unity, announcing fresh sanctions on Moscow and promising humanitarian aid to Kiev. The NATO, G-7 and EU meetings were dominated by talk of China’s tepid attitude to Russian aggression. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg tells CNBC that Beijing must join the international response in condemning the conflict. Washington has assured Europe of LNG deliveries by the end of 2022 and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz tells this channel that speeding up his country’s energy mix is key to moving away from reliance on Russia. We also hear exclusively from French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire, who says that the Ukraine conflict has ended the “happy, naïve” model of globalisation”.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

One month after the invasion of Ukraine, NATO leaders hold another emergency meeting in Brussels with new measures expected to be introduced. President Biden is to hold a series of summits with allies promising a serious reinforcement of the bloc’s eastern flank while NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warns of the long-term security consequences of the conflict in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has demanded that all gas supplies to “unfriendly countries” must now be paid for in rubles. And, as Western sanctions and collapsing imports begin to take effect, the IIF has predicted that the war will cost Russia 15 years of economic growth. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy has called out French companies to quit their operations in Russia. Car giant Renault subsequently pulls out of the country and downgrades it margin outlook.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.