Squawk Box Europe Express

Tesla shares slump after CEO Elon Musk warns of potential ‘rough quarters’ ahead as EV subsidies expire and European sales nosedive by 40 per cent in June. Deutsche Bank sees profits double in H1 to €5.3bn on strong inflows to its private bank and asset banking arm. CFO James Von Moltke tells CNBC he believes the German economy is gaining in confidence. European futures are up as the EU and U.S. move closer to negotiating a 15 per cent tariff package, similar to that agreed between Washington and Japan earlier this week.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The U.S. and Japan agree to what President Trump calls ‘the largest trade deal in history’. Tariffs on most goods including autos have been reduced to 15 per cent, sending shares spiking among car manufacturers. Italian lender Unicredit hikes its guidance following an unexpected profit jump in Q2 just a day after it abandoned its bid for smaller domestic rival Banco BPM. CEO Andrea Orcel tells CNBC the takeover move had become ‘a drag’. SAP posts a 24 per cent cloud revenue beat but still misses expectations. CFO Dominik Asam says he remains confident thanks to a strong pipeline in H2.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The White House maintains pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates but markets appear sanguine. The S&P 500 closes at a fresh record high while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells our colleagues Stateside that he intends to investigate the Fed’s decision-making. Brussels is reportedly preparing a range of ‘nuclear options’ should the EU fail to agree a trade deal with Washington ahead of President Trump’s August 1st deadline. Anglo-Swedish drug firm AstraZeneca says it will invest around $50bn for manufacturing and R&D in the US over the next five years as it braces for potential pharma tariffs.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling coalition loses its majority in the upper house with rival parties advocating tax cuts and increased spending. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says he believes an EU trade deal is feasible. However, reports suggest some EU leaders are considering harsher retaliatory moves should President Trump raise the baseline tariff rate. And in aviation news, Ryanair’s net profits almost double in the second quarter as Easter travel boosts Europe’s largest budget carrier. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Netflix posts a Q2 beat on the back of strong subscriber growth and advertising sales and has hiked its revenue forecast. Shares move slightly down in after-hours trade, however, as investors brace for rising costs in H2. Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller is urging a rate cut this month, citing growing weakness in the U.S. labor market. And in Japan, the ruling coalition could lose its upper house majority in this weekend’s election as an upstart right-wing party threatens to add pressure to the country’s finances.  See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

President Trump denies he plans to fire U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell following reports he had written a draft dismissal letter and discussed the move with lawmakers. Trump did again, however, criticise Powell for his failure to lower interest rates. The world’s largest contract chip maker, TSMC, posts a massive 60 per cent surge in profits in the second quarter. Drug giant Novartis hikes its full-year guidance on the back of a narrow Q2 core earnings beat and double-digit sales numbers. European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen outlines her next budget plans but faces stiff criticism from Brussels and member states for the content and handling of the €2.3tn package.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves gives her Mansion House speech and calls on regulators to strip back red tape in order to boost growth. In the U.S., the June inflation print comes in slightly higher as tariffs begin to affect the core CPI number with President Trump continuing to slam the Federal Reserve’s measures. In France, Prime Minister Francois Bayrou infuriates Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National party after proposing a €44bn tax rise package as well as slashing two public holidays from the calendar to encourage economic activity. In autos news, disappointing European demand and Chinese competition prompts Renault to cut its full-year guidance. The company has also installed finance chief Duncan Minto as interim CEO.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Nvidia expects the green light from the U.S. government to resume selling a key AI chip in China with deliveries to begin soon. Domestic consumption drives Q2 growth in China but the threat of a trade war with the U.S. still looms. And U.S. President Trump u-turns on arms deliveries to Ukraine, including sending Patriot missiles and threatening Russia with secondary tariffs in the event of no ceasefire within 50 days.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

President Trump threatens the European Union with a 30 per cent tariff on exports into the U.S. starting on 1st August. However, Trump says a deal could be reached if the EU was willing to make concessions. The EU is holding off from any retaliatory measures for now but European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen says the bloc is preparing to target up to €90bn of U.S. products should negotiations fail. European futures dip but should avoid a severe sell-off as investors pin hopes on a settlement to be reached between Washington and Brussels.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

All eyes are on Washington as President Trump says he will send a tariff letter to the European Union by the weekend - after slapping Canada with a 35% levy. Meanwhile, JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon has a simple message for Europe: you're losing the battle to rival the US and China. Across the Atlantic, European leaders are set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping this month, sources confirm to CNBC - averting potential embarrassment ahead of a likely contentious summit.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

President Trump hits Brazil with a 50% tariff - despite the U.S. having a trade surplus in goods with the country - citing the prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The world's biggest company gets even bigger: Nvidia becomes the first company in history to breach $4 trillion in market cap as investors pile back in on AI bets. Meanwhile, Kellogg shares spike in extended trade amid reports Nutella-maker Ferrero is nearing an acquisition deal, in what would be a rare European takeover of a U.S. rival.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

President Trump threatens substantial levies on copper and the pharma sector, as the EU scrambles to agree on a tariff deal. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says that both sides are making progress. Meta bets on EssilorLuxottica - reportedly taking a $3.5 billion minority stake in the Ray-Ban maker as the U.S. tech giant makes a push in the 'smart glasses' space. Elon Musk lashes out at one of the most bullish Tesla analysts on Wall Street, telling Wedbush Securities' Dan Ives to "Shut up," after he called for Musk to cut back on politics.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

President Trump hits trading partners with higher tariffs from August, including 25% on Japan and South Korea, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the U.S. is weighing several new deals. The European Union is reportedly set to dodge any tariff escalation, with Ireland's Trade Minister saying he expects an extension of the status quo, allowing time for further talks. Meanwhile, officials from Japan and South Korea hold calls with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, saying they'll hold further talks before the new tariffs come into effect next month.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

President Trump says countries will receive tariff letters from 5pm London time, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirms the measures come into effect from August 1st. Eurogroup President Paschal Donohoe tells CNBC he's optimistic the EU can strike a trade deal with the U.S. - as the bloc eyes a skeleton agreement that keeps a 10% levy on most exports. And - Elon Musk announces plans to launch a new political party, drawing the ire of President Trump and raising questions about his business commitments.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The U.S. aims to finalise a flurry of deals ahead of its tariff deadline, while EU talks extend into the weekend. But European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expects only a framework agreement in the short term. After several all-nighters, Republicans finally force through President Trump's sweeping budget bill, in time for the U.S. leader to sign it into law today, the 4th of July. And - one year of Keir Starmer. The British Prime Minister and the Labour Party mark 12 months in power to cap off a week marked by a tearful Chancellor Rachel Reeves on the frontbench, while the PM scrambles to reassure a jittery bond market.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Speculation swirls around U.K. Chancellor Rachel Reeves after an emotional appearance in parliament, sparking selling across U.K. assets, with long-dated gilt yields seeing their biggest spike since April. Meanwhile, the U.S. sets a 20% tariff on exports from Vietnam under a new trade deal, just days before President Trump's deadline to ramp up his so-called 'reciprocal tariffs' once again. And - President Trump's Budget Bill stalls in the House, as Speaker Johnson struggles to win over opponents in his own party.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The Senate narrowly passes Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill, with attention now turning back to the House as it races to pass the package. Fed Chair Jerome Powell appears to push back at pressure from President Trump, telling the Sintra forum the Fed would have cut rates further by this stage if it had not been for tariffs. Shares in AstraZeneca pop in Tuesday's session after the Times reports CEO Pascal Soriot is looking at moving the pharma giant's listing from London to the U.S. And - Santander swoops in for Sabadell's U.K. unit TSB in a deal worth £2.65 billion.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

ECB President Christine Lagarde kicks off this year's ECB Forum with a warning against complacency, but Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch tells CNBC the central bank will only stick or cut at this point. Senate voting on the Trump-backed budget bill continues into a second day, as Republican leaders look to secure the support needed to send the package back to the House. Meanwhile, the dollar sees its worst start to a year since 1973, as President Trump's trade policies and attacks on the Fed raise questions around the greenback's safe-haven status.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

U.S. senators end their debate on President Trump's budget bill, with a vote on the package due later today. Meanwhile, European Council President Antonio Costa tells CNBC the U.S. defence spending dispute is resolved, with Europe boosting arms purchases under the new NATO deal. Canada scraps its digital services tax targeting U.S. big tech just days after President Trump calls off trade talks.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The White House announces a potential extension to the reciprocal tariffs deadline. This could include the 50 per cent levy on the European Union. The EC president, Ursula Von Der Leyen confirms she has received Washington’s proposal of new trade discussions but struck a cautious tone ahead of any resumption in dialogue. The U.S. dollar sinks to a three-and-a-half-year low against the euro and sterling with markets now mulling the potential appointment of a more doveish Federal Reserve chairman by the U.S. president.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.