Squawk Box Europe Express

Farewell Frankfurt…ECB president Mario Draghi prepares his final press conference before stepping aside for Christine Lagarde amid a backdrop of negative rates and weakening data in the euro zone. We are live in Frankfurt to look at his legacy. In corporate news, Tesla shares soar more than 20 per cent following a surprise Q3 beat but Ford slides and cuts its full-year profit forecast, warning of a slowdown in China. There's a similar story in the German automotive sector, where Daimler cuts the revenue outlook for its trucks division. Nokia lowers both its 2019 and 2020 profit guidance as the Finnish telco warns tough competition is squeezing margins. It also halts its dividend as it ramps up investments in 5G amid battles with rivals.Meanwhile on Capitol Hill, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg is grilled by the House Financial Services Committee over his company’s planned entrance into the cryptocurrency market.

Yes, but…U.K. lawmakers vote to approve Boris Johnson's Brexit deal, but reject a three-day timeframe to pass the bill, leaving it up to EU leaders to grant an extension to next week's October 31st deadline. We are live in Westminster and Brussels as both sides react to the latest stalemate. In China, plans are reportedly afoot to replace embattled Hong Kong CEO Carrie Lam following months of increasingly violent anti-government protests in the city state. ABB kicks off a busy earnings day for European blue-chips. The Swiss industrial group warns of weakening conditions in the U.S. and China, but sees net profit fall less than expected in the third quarter. We are also live in Frankfurt where Mario Draghi is set to oversee his final policy meeting as ECB president.  

Brexit block… House of Commons Speaker John Bercow denies Prime Minister Boris Johnson a straight yes or no meaningful vote on the Brexit deal he secured last week, saying that debating the motion would be ‘disruptive’. MPs will today debate the Withdrawal Bill being published by the government. In corporate news, Swiss lender UBS beats Q3 expectations on the bottom line but CEO Sergio Ermotti tells this channel that challenges persist for investment banking and wealth management. In the U.S., the S&P 500 falls short of its all-time high by just 1 per cent off the back of trade optimism and earnings. We also hear from Russia’s finance minister, Anton Siluanov, who tells CNBC that his country is not seeking to capitalise from damaged relations between Washington and Beijing. And in M&A news, this channel learns that Softbank is in talks to buy WeWork, valuing the workspace logistics provider at $7.5BN-8BN.

Brexit Bedlam…sterling dips following U.K. MPs’ Saturday delay to a vote on the deal struck by Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Brussels last week. The EU has received a forced extension request from No.10 but Johnson remains steadfast and is preparing to table another vote to get the divorce agreement through Parliament and ensure the U.K. leaves the bloc by October 31st. Lebanon is paralysed by a fourth day of massive anti-government protests as Prime Minister Saad Hariri rushes to push through a raft of economic reforms in a bid to quell the unrest. We are live in Beirut for the latest. Meanwhile, at the IMF annual meetings in Washington, we hear exclusively from UBS chairman Axel Weber who warns that central banks are increasingly losing their way, with negative rates causing despair among European investors.

Boris scores a Brexit breakthrough in Brussels. We host a special Brexit Endgame edition of Squawk Box, live from London, Brussels and Belfast. It is now up to Prime Minister Johnson to convince MPs to pass the agreement during an extraordinary parliamentary session scheduled tomorrow in order for EU leaders to officially ratify the deal by October 31st. However, he faces pushback from Northern Ireland where the DUP says it cannot abide by Johnson’s proposals due to serious concerns over customs and tax regulations. Elsewhere, China's third-quarter GDP grows at its slowest pace in almost 30 years, as weak factory production and an ongoing trade war weigh on the world's second-largest economy. And in corporate news, French automaker Renault has slashed its full-year revenue and profit forecasts citing weak sales outside of Europe.

Down to the wire... The U.K. and EU press on with last-ditch talks to try and secure a Brexit deal to present to leaders in Brussels. However, Northern Ireland’s DUP dashes hopes saying it cannot back the current proposal. We are live in Brussels for the latest on this fast-moving story. In the U.S., retail sales slump for the first time in seven months, increasing economic jitters. But on the trade front, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says that negotiators are working on the draft of a ‘Phase One’ trade deal with counterparts in Beijing. In corporate news, Netflix surprises to the upside, winning more subscribers than expected, while Facebook tries to convince the market its cryptocurrency Libra will ‘overcome problems’ once regulatory issues are resolved.

Burning the midnight oil – U.K. and EU negotiators hold talks in London and Brussels late into the night, appearing to edge closer to a last-minute withdrawal deal, but certain sticking points remain unresolved. In Hong Kong, vocal protests in the Legislative Council session itself force the territory’s Chief Executive Carrie Lam to deliver her policy address via video link. In Washington, the IMF warns that the U.S.-China trade war, a ‘synchronised’ global slowdown and ongoing geo-political uncertainty have prompted the fund to cut 2019 growth forecasts to the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis. And on Wall Street JP Morgan soars after the lender smashes forecasts, but Goldman Sachs doesn’t fare as well, hit by losses from its investments in WeWork and Uber.

Turkey gets sanctioned. The U.S. imposes immediate penalties on several Turkish ministers and slaps Ankara with a 50 per cent tariff on steel , demanding a halt to its military incursion into Kurdish-held northern Syria. We are live in Istanbul for the latest. U.S. stocks slip and oil prices extend losses as questions arise over the U.S.-China trade deal, despite U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin telling this channel that the first phase of the pact is ‘quite substantial’. China's September producer prices fall at their fastest pace in three years, while pork prices surge nearly 70 per cent pushing food prices higher. And it’s crunchtime for the U.K. and the EU. Brexit negotiators have battened down the hatches and entered so-called ‘tunnel talks’ ahead of a key summit later this week. The EU’s chief representative Michel Barnier says a deal this week remains possible.

Trade deal light – Asian stocks follow the U.S. into the green after a tentative truce is agreed between Washington and Beijing. President Trump hails the progress but critics suggest concessions have been made to China. Meanwhile, data reveals Chinese imports and exports fell more than expected in September. We are live from Westminster at the start of a crucial week for Brexit, after the UK and EU admit that a lot of work still needs to be done to reach a withdrawal agreement ahead of a key summit in Brussels. The Queen will outline the government’s plan in her speech at the state opening of parliament today. And in Syria, the U.S. pulls out its final troops from the north as a Turkish cross-border incursion rages. Humanitarian concerns over the operation have prompted President Trump to threaten Ankara with ‘powerful’ sanctions.

Trade deal optimism fuels a rally as high-level talks between the U.S. and China get underway and President Trump hails the progress ahead of a planned meeting with Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He later today. In the U.K., sterling jumps to a two-week high against the dollar after Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said he saw a ‘pathway’ to a Brexit deal following positive talks with Prime Minister Boris Johnson. In corporate news, SAP CEO Bill McDermott announces his plans to step down following a decade at the helm of the German software titan. New co-CEO Jennifer Morgan tells CNBC that the time is right for a change of leadership. And luxury German fashion group Hugo Boss revises its full-year outlook for the second time this year citing weak U.S. sales and the ongoing anti-government protests rocking Hong Kong.   

Tit-for-tat becomes tittle-tattle… conflicting messages plague the progress of the U.S.-China trade talks, set to resume today. Asian equities and U.S. futures hold steady after sources tell CNBC that reports talks have collapsed are false. But the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes show that trade war concerns continued to weigh on the minds of board members when they voted to cut rates last month. Turkey launches an incursion against Kurdish forces across Syria’s northern border after President Trump’s weekend decision to move U.S. troops out of the region. And in corporate news, luxury goods giant LVMH posts better-than-expected third-quarter numbers in Europe and the U.S. but also in Asia, despite the impact of the Hong Kong crisis.

Restricted and blacklisted. Asian stocks dip following a sharp plunge on Wall Street after the U.S. administration slaps visa restrictions on Chinese officials for alleged human rights abuses of Xinjiang Uighurs ahead of trade talks tomorrow. The move comes one day after Washington blacklisted 20 Chinese entities, drawing a harsh response from Beijing, which has called on the U.S. to stop interfering in its affairs. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell says the Fed will grow its balance sheet but cautions that the move should not be confused with the large-scale quantitative easing the central bank resorted to after the financial crisis. In the U.K., the pound slides following suggestions by No.10 that Brexit talks with Brussels are on the verge of collapse. The Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar says a deal is highly unlikely ahead of next week’s EU leaders’ summit. We are live in Luxembourg for the Euro Zone finance ministers' meeting.

The charm offensive ends. The Hong Kong Exchange drops its 39 billion dollar bid for the LSE, admitting it failed to convince the London bourse of its ‘strategically compelling’ vision. Asian stocks rise ahead of U.S.-China trade talks later this week, even as Washington blacklists more Chinese firms ahead of a new flashpoint between the two countries after an NBA official sends a tweet in support of the Hong Kong protesters, which is met with a cold response in China. In tech, Samsung beats estimates despite signaling a 56 percent fall in third-quarter profit, while guidance suggests a turnaround is on the way for memory chip prices. And further job cuts for Thyssenkrupp as it is set to reveal a restructuring plan with new CEO Martina Merz presenting her proposals at a leadership meeting today.

The Dow jumps more than 350 points after the jobs report puts the economy in a sweet spot, but it's a cautious trade in Asia as investors eye high level U.S.-China trade talks due to restart this week. A report suggests Beijing is looking to narrow the scope of the deal. HSBC is reportedly set to slash up to ten thousand jobs as the lender looks to cut costs under new interim CEO Noel Quinn. It’s a calmer day in Hong Kong after anti-government demonstrations turn violent as tens of thousands protest against the city's use of emergency law, drawing their first warning from the Chinese military. And the French President Emmanuel Macron says the EU will decide on a Brexit deal by the end of the week, as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson says the block shouldn't bet on a delay.

U.S. equities bounce back following two days of selling off, while weak economic data raises hopes the Federal Reserve will cut rates later this month. We look ahead to the jobs report for more signs. President Trump doubles down on his call for Ukraine to investigate the Bidens and urges China to look into the former Vice-President too, as the impeachment inquiry gets under way. In tech news, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg defends plans to encrypt the company’s messaging system as authorities in the U.S., U.K. and Australia say that the decision will put the public at risk. We are also live in Parma, Italy, to hear from the food industry ahead of a looming tariff tussle between the EU and Washington.

A new front opens…Washington escalates the trade war, this time hitting the EU with tariffs on up to $7.5bn worth of goods. The U.S. plans to impose a 25% levy on a range of European products, including French wine, Italian cheese and Scottish whisky. The moves comes after the WTO ruled against the EU in a 15-year-old dispute judging the bloc’s subsidies to plane makers Airbus and Boeing to be illegal. President Trump hails the win but trade tensions and weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs numbers trigger a global stocks sell-off, causing the weakest day of trade on Wall Street in six weeks. In the U.K., Prime Minister Boris Johnson sets out his final proposal for a Brexit deal, including Irish backstop concessions but the reaction from the EU remains mixed. We are live in Brussels for the latest reactions.

An October fright: global stocks see red and the Dow wipes out all of its third-quarter gains on the opening day of Q4 after U.S. manufacturing activity hits a decade-low. In the U.K., Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to reveal his final Brexit ultimatum to the European Union, ruling out asking for any extension should Brussels turn down his offer. Hong Kong experiences further unrest overnight following the police shooting of a teenaged pro-democracy demonstrator. The violence is some of the worst the Special Administrative Region has seen since anti-Beijing protests erupted 17 weeks ago. And in Silicon Valley, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg has panned Democratic presidential hopeful Elizabeth Warren’s plans to break up large tech companies should she reach the White House, saying that he fancies his chances in any subsequent legal battle.

“Reputational damage” – Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam survives the spying scandal, but the bank’s COO resigns following an internal probe that finds he acted alone in ordering the surveillance of former wealth management chief Iqbal Khan. We report from Zurich as the lender apologises for the affair that has gripped the Swiss banking community. We are also live from Hong Kong and Beijing, where President Xi Jinping pledges peaceful development as China marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic, while the Special Administrative Region braces for more mass pro-democracy protests. We speak exclusively to the boss of Deutsche Post DHL, as the logistics giant boosts investments despite the economic slowdown in air freight.  

Shares in AB Inbev’s Asia Pacific unit jump in its Hong Kong debut, in the second largest IPO of the year. On the city streets, protests turn violent, as police use tear gas and water cannons against anti-government demonstrators ahead of the 70th anniversary of Chinese communist rule. In the U.S., the whistleblower at the heart of the impeachment inquiry into President Trump is set to testify as early as this week. And in the U.K., with the threat of a no-deal Brexit looming, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson refuses to rule out leaving the EU without a deal, while health secretary Matt Hancock tells CNBC he would prefer an agreement.

Capitol Hill remains front and centre. A whistleblower report alleges President Trump abused his power in a call with Ukraine's leader, and that the White House tried to cover it up. We’re live in Kiev as the U.S. president once again denies any wrongdoing, while the House Intelligence Committee chairman says the complaint provides a roadmap of allegations that need to be investigated. China's industrial profits fall in August as the trade war with the U.S. continues to weigh on the economy. But CNBC learns that talks between Beijing and Washington are set to resume on October 10th. Huawei CEO Ren Zhengfei tells CNBC exclusively that the Chinese tech giant hopes to keep doing business with Google, but is biding its time on the U.S. blacklist. And not fit for purpose – shares in Peloton dive in the fitness start-up’s market debut.