Adventures In Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

DB- Mar22, 2021. Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy returns to the Daily Briefing to update Real Vision’s Jack Farley to share her analysis on the prospects of U.S. Treasury bond yields, given the Federal Reserve’s decision to give exemptions to banks’ supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) expire, and its apparent aversion to yield curve control (YCC). Alden tells Farley that forthcoming headline inflation figures could appear higher than true inflation due to base effects, and explains the how the record-high Treasury’s General Account (TGA) will affect bond yields going forward. Alden explains why she expects yields to be the release valve of volatility rather than the dollar, and notes that heightened uncertainty over macro variables makes this environment a paradise for pickers of individual stocks. Lastly, Alden shares her bullish thesis on Adobe Inc ($ADBE) and her evolving views on non-fungible tokens (NFTs).  For Listeners: Checkout skillshare.com and learn a new skill. You can use a unique pro

Real Vision Live Replays. It isn't hard to find data indicative of the madness that pervades the current market environment, but to Jim Grant, founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, no data point encapsulates this quite as clearly as the staggering $17 trillion of negative-yielding debt outstanding in the world. As an avid historian of interest rates, Grant argues that the only certainty is that this will end and most likely it will end badly. In this interview with Max Wiethe, Grant explores why he is so certain that this monetary experiment will end badly, the unintended negative consequences that can be seen in credit markets as yield starved investors grope for any yield they can find no matter the risk, and the opportunities this presents for investors willing to bet that a guaranteed loss on your investment will eventually fall out of fashion. As well the pair will discuss the implications of Biden's selection of Janet Yellen as his Treasury Secretary and potential for a return to an inflationary en

The Interview. Because of their favorable structure, SPACs have become the vehicle of choice for founders and venture capitalists to bring private startups to the public market—even with the explosion of SPACs in 2020, we are already on record setting pace in 2021. In this interview with Mike Green of Logica Capital, Josh Wolfe of Lux Capital breaks down exactly why the SPAC structure is so favorable and argues that the knock-on effect of an M&A boom will produce the modern equivalent of the AOL-Time Warner acquisition, signaling that the top is in. Wolfe and Green also discuss Wall Street Bets and the current meme driven market, Josh's prediction of an "Occupy the Fed" movement, and the biggest opportunities in tech that he and Lux Capital are invested in Recorded on January 28, 2021. Key Learnings: SPACs have a favorable structure that makes raising cash so easy that it will encourage rampant M&A, which will eventually result in the mega-deal, signaling the top of the market. Crypto and Wall Street Bets

DB-Mar19,2021. Despite today’s head fake in bonds (yields surged but quickly retreated from their peaks), this Friday marks the seventh consecutive week in which the U.S. 10 year Treasury yield has risen. Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley to analyze how the continued sell-off in bonds is impacting bank stocks, tech equities, and the U.S. dollar. They explore how the Fed’s decision to let the SLR exemption expire will impact the bond market and banks. Ed updates viewers on Europe’s economic woes, and Jack gives a quick rundown of the wild gyrations in the oil market. The three also look at the rate hikes by the central banks of Turkey, Brazil, Norway, and Russia. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

DB- Mar18,2021. Ramsey Smith, founder and CEO of ALEX.fyi, returns to Real Vision to share with managing editor Ed Harrison his economic outlook and his views on how the advent of COVID-19 has changed retirement portfolio construction as well as the nature of the annuities business. Smith notes that rising rates is good for the life insurance business because it is, like banking, a business that depends heavily on spreads. Smith thinks that the liquidity coming from stimulus will be helpful to markets. Lastly, Smith and Harrison explore to what degree society will return to “normal” as the economy re-opens. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

DB-Mar 17,2021: Real Vision’s Jack Farley hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to break down the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech. Harrison and Farley interpret the Fed’s projections of GDP growth, inflation, as well as their “dot plot” of the future Federal Funds rate. Farley reviews the price action in bonds, gold, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100, and Harrison analyzes the challenges many European nations face as they attempt to vaccinate their population against COVID-19. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Crypto Wednesday: Mike Green, chief strategist and portfolio manager at Logica Capital, and Anthony Pompliano, investor at Pomp Investments, join Ash Bennington, Real Vision senior editor, to discuss their opposing views on Bitcoin. They each explain their views on Bitcoin—Pompliano makes the case for Bitcoin being a store of value that should be widely adopted and encouraged by the United States in order to stay competitive globally while Green asserts that Bitcoin is used primarily for nefarious activity and is mainly controlled by entities that are oppositional to the United States. Green believes that Bitcoin is the perfect example of markets indicating that something is incredibly successful, even when in actuality it is failing (or will fail), and that its price appreciation does mean that it is a robust system. Filmed on February 1, 2021. Key Learnings: Pompliano believes that there are many non-trivial indicators that suggest Bitcoin is robust and becoming widely adopted including the number of wallet

DB-Mar16,2021: Tony Greer of TG Macro joins Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington to share his thoughts on how the gyrations in the bond market are affecting risk assets. With the market leaning toward a more inflationary regime, Greer charts his way higher for equities as he sees growth pick up and a cyclical rotation out of tech and into natural resource stocks. Bennington and Greer briefly interpret today’s negative print in retail sales before moving on to the rise of non-fungible tokens, which they believe is creating a new form of value by allowing the authentication of digital art. Lastly, Greer shares his investment advice across all asset classes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

DB-Mar15,2021. Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley interpret the day’s market news. Farley breaks down the bullish price action in U.S. airlines as TSA throughput picks up and Delta’s CEO hints at a brighter future. Harrison distills the market noise into three clear narratives: inflation vs. deflation, end of cycle vs. beginning of cycle, and institutional investors vs. retail investors. Harrison and Farley analyze the market impact of the stunning suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine in France, Italy, Germany, and many other European countries, and then they dive deeper into the plumbing of inflation breakevens, before remarking upon Tesla’s remarkable new names of its chief corporate officers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision Live Replay: Segra Capital Management partner Arthur Hyde, CFA, and founder and portfolio manager Adam Rodman join Real Vision editor Max Wiethe to give an in-depth update on uranium. Hyde and Rodman provide a recap on the recent events in the sector and uranium's price movement, discuss why this is still a structurally undersupplied market, and share why interest in uranium is increasing. With the presence of COVID-19, they explain the risks that the pandemic poses to the uranium supply and that, despite these supply risks, the demand for nuclear power generation has remained resilient. They also dig into how existing and new nuclear energy will play a role in the secular global trend towards clean energy in light of China's, Japan's, and Korea's recent carbon neutrality pledges. Key Learnings: Hyde and Rodman explore how nuclear power is an underappreciated, yet critical player in the transition to clean energy, and the uranium sector only stands to benefit from this trend. Emphasizing that t

Eric Basmajian, founder and editor at EPB Macro Research, joins Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy to break down his near-term outlook on the global economy as well his longer-term framework for macro investing. Basmajian notes that the growth rate in industrial output, the pick-up in demand for commodities, and a steepening yield curve indicate a growth pick-up. Alden and Basmajian explore the significance of the underperformance of banks (particularly regional ones) and energy relative to the S&P 500 and then dive head-first into more macro issues on a longer-term time horizon such as the interplay of debt, inflation, the dollar, interest rates, and the velocity of money. Recorded on January 26, 2021. Key learnings: The strength of cyclical economic momentum indicators, particularly in industrials, indicates growth will continue in the short-term. Within a longer-term time horizon, Basmajian believes that extreme debt levels incurred on corporate as well as government balance sheets will hamper grow

The Interview: Steven Van Metre of Steven Van Metre Financial and Real Vision president Travis Kimmel discuss how bonds and gold perform during times of deflation and insolvency. After Kimmel shares his journey as an entrepreneur and a technologist to Real Vision’s president, he explains why he thinks insolvency poses a serious risk for the U.S. economy. He and Van Metre discuss why Treasury bonds perform so well during times of economic distress, comparing the performance of long Treasury bonds relative to the S&P 500, as well as to gold and gold miners. After Van Metre explains why he believes quantitative easing is, in fact, deflationary, Kimmel describes the "greatest trades" he sees on the horizon. Recorded on January 21, 2021. Key learnings: The repayment of debt destroys dollars, so the overhang of tremendous debt loads and obligations (rents, corporate borrowing, etc.) will prove deflationary. In this scenario, Kimmel and Van Metre think bonds offer a favorable risk/reward. Learn more about your

DB-Mar12,2020.Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal joins senior editor Ash Bennington to make sense of a bond market trying to regain its footing and a wobbling equity market vulnerable to an ignited dollar. Raoul argues that inflation is probably on the horizon but insists that it will be temporary cyclical, not secular. Raoul estimates that the Federal Reserve’s pledge to target maximum employment – even if that means inflation runs hot – makes yield curve control a potential outcome. Lastly, Raoul and Ash discuss the rejuvenated crypto market with most coins trading at or above their all-time highs as well as the red-hot market of non-fungible tokens (NFTs), which they argue empower artists and musicians by granting them perpetual claim on their work and have the potential to create a new mechanism of digital value. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

DB-Mar11,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes James Bianco, president of Bianco Research, and Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group and editor of The Boock Report, to the Daily Briefing to analyze the ongoing gyrations in the U.S Treasurys market and how their future path will impact almost every asset class. Harrison notes the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached an all-time high, and Boockvar and Bianco consider the halting of the rotation trade. Boockvar explains that inflation expectations will continue to vex the bond market while Bianco argues that a 10 year rate above 3% would be a serious problem for leveraged institutions. They investigate the effect of yields on the U.S. dollar, and Boockvar and Bianco share their ideal asset allocation in this unique investment environment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

DB-Mar10,2021. Real Vision editors Jack Farley and Max Wiethe analyze price action in U.S. equities as well as today’s print of the Consumer Price Index, which met but did not exceed expectations and indicates muted inflation. In the main segment, Jack speaks to Corey Hoffstein, co-founder and chief investment officer of Newfound Research. Using advanced quantitative modeling, Corey charts the rotation from growth to value stocks and notes how the underperformance of “momentum” investing is evidence of that very rotation. Corey investigates the claim that growth stocks are vulnerable to increases in interest rates, which he finds true but incomplete. Lastly, Hoffstein shares his view on the vulnerability of the Ark Innovation ETF ($ARKK) to bouts of reflation, looking at metrics such as implied correlation and implied volatility. Corey can be reached on Twitter at @choffstein. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Crypto Wednesday: Gavin Wood, co-founder of Polkadot and co-founder and CTO of Ethereum, joins Sebastian Moonjava, Real Vision associate crypto editor, to discuss Polkadot, Kusama, and the evolving crypto landscape. Wood explains that Polkadot was created to enable faster innovation in the blockchain space, reducing the amount of work necessary to start and secure a new blockchain and connect it to others. He describes Polkadot as a layer 0 technology, a meta protocol, that is more abstract and flexible than Bitcoin and Ethereum. Wood also talks about Kusama, which utilizes the same kind of technology as Polkadot but has a completely different development philosophy. Kusama is a faster iterating, more experimental chain that acts as a "canary network"—a real value, live chain that allows for rapid development of the technology. He describes Polkadot as a revolution in blockchain technology, not just an evolution. Recorded on January 21, 2021 Key Learnings: Polkadot enables faster innovation in blockchain te

DB-Mar10,2021: Real Vision editor Jack Farley hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to process the astonishing resistance rally in technology and growth stocks with high duration such as Tesla ($TSLA), Peloton ($PTON), DocuSign ($DOCU) and Zoom Video ($ZM). Jack notes that Tesla posted the 3rd biggest daily return in the history of the company, and Ed interprets the pause in the U.S. Treasury sell-off as gold staged a recovery and oil and copper lost the bid. The pair analyze the inclusion in the latest U.S. stimulus package of $86 billion worth of relief for failing pensions, and Ed shares why this bailout might prove a dangerous precedent. Lastly, Ed and Jack analyze the latest data showing that retail comprised a plurality of volume in the U.S. equity market as well as what the most frequented pages on RobinHood indicate about the rise of the retail trader. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

DB-Mar8, 2021. As treasury yields continued their ascent today, big tech stocks such as Alphabet Inc ($GOOGL) and Apple Inc ($AAPL) joined growthy darlings such as Tesla, Zoom, and Peloton in today’s sell-off with the NASDAQ 100 closing today down 11% from its highs. Real Vision editor Jack Farley welcomes Tyler Neville, senior editor of Blockworks, to break down the ongoing rout from growth stocks. Neville shares how he thinks this “bubble in duration” will end, where he sees opportunity in going short GameStop puts, and why he remains extremely bullish on Bitcoin. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision Live Replay. Former Enron CFO Andy Fastow is infamous for his role in Enron's collapse; however, since serving his time and reflecting on his actions, he has turned over a new leaf, speaking about ethics and the problem of "legal fraud". In this interview with Quinton Mathews, managing member at QKM, Fastow argues that the biggest problem is the incredible number of loopholes that exist, allowing executives like himself to mislead and misrepresent without ever breaking a specific law and even having these misleading statements signed off on by corporate lawyers and auditors. Using poignant examples from Enron and other companies, Fastow highlights many of these loopholes and makes the case that closing them alone could not prevent the problem. Since leaving prison, Fastow has also began investing in a potential solution—Keen Corp's natural language processing software, which he believes if implemented could help corporations to avert white collar crime and detect problems in their ranks before gai

The Interview. Jason Wild, founder of JW Asset Management, sits down with Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, to discuss his career journey from pharmacist to investor with a firm that oversees $1 billion through a mix of investments in pharmaceuticals and cannabis producers. Wild’s early success came from assembling Arbor Pharmaceuticals and later selling it to KKR in 2014 for a large profit. He used the proceeds to invest in major Canadian cannabis companies, and he has since become one of the first U.S. institutional investors in legal cannabis companies. Today he is building the global cannabis company TerrAscend, where he is Chairman. Recorded January 14, 2021 Key Learnings: Wild identifies the top cannabis stocks to invest in and why he focuses on operating in limited-license states where there is less competition. The COVID-19 pandemic has helped drive investor demand in the cannabis industry and states and voters are finally realizing that cannabis legalization is a solution to help revive the economy.