Adventures In Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

DB-Jan26,2021: Senior editor Ash Bennington hosts Tommy Thornton of Hedge Fund Telemetry to break down a day of absurd price action as GameStop skyrocketed 90% today and zoomed an additional 46% during afterhours trading. Tommy and Ash reflect on the shrewd yet reckless speculations of the r/wallstreetbets traders, who pushed hedge funds that were short GameStop like Melvin Capital to the brink, with Tommy noting that this intentional targeting of shorts triggered a record day of long/short degrossing. Turning to technical indicators, Tommy comments on the buying exhaustion he is seeing via DeMARK indicators, saying “this is a bubble that I think could pop at any moment.” He recommends “ringing the register” on successful trades and turning to cash. Tommy closes by giving Ash a long idea: Zynga Inc ($ZNGA). In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin makes sense of the market as company earnings reports take center stage and wild swings resume on heavily shorted stocks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit m

DB-Jan25,2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison and editor Jack Farley break down the logic-defying price action in highly speculative stocks like Blackberry, AMC Entertainment Holdings, and, most notably, GameStop Corp, which surged over 160% to $159 before plummeting yet still being up on the day. Ed and Jack break down the “short squeezes” and “gamma squeezes” that are inflating those names, particularly GameStop, with Ed interpreting his Real Vision Live with Jim Bianco today and Jack sourcing info from volatility trader Kris Sidial. Lastly, Ed shares his thinking on how the different COVID-19 variants will impact re-opening as well as the reflation trade, which he thinks may have overstepped its bounds. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin describes what happened with GameStop’s volatile trading today. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision Live Replay, Recorded on 24 Sep 2020: Here at Real Vision it’s clear that viewers are keenly focused on Raoul’s unfolding thesis and the potential that the market is teetering between hope and insolvency, but so are many of our contributors. Matt Rowe of Headwaters Volatility Solutions was inspired by Raoul’s recent call for an insolvency phase and in this special edition of Real Vision Live will be putting his corporate credit hat back on to provide a deeper dive into how both credit and equity markets are totally mispricing the insolvency risks looming large post-COVID. Please note that Matt has an extensive background in corporate credit and before founding Headwaters Volatility Solutions was the managing partner of a fund focused on convertible bond and capital structure arbitrage. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Interview, Recorded on December 1, 2020.: Hugh Hendry, founder and former CIO of Eclectica Asset Management, welcomes Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy for a wide-ranging discussion on international trade and the Eurodollar system. Hendry mounts a nuanced defense of the dollar's role as the global reserve asset, whereas Alden sees a slow but steady de-dollarization happening around the world, which she expects will continue. Hendry and Alden discuss whether China's role in international trade is "mercantilist," and whether its stagnant reserves of U.S. Treasurys is a true macroeconomic bellwether. Lastly, Hendry and Alden look forward to identify potential solutions to these problems, such as digital currencies (Alden's solution) and ultra-negative rates (Hendry's solution). Hugh Hendry's YouTube channel can be accessed here: https://www.youtube.com/c/HughHendryOfficial/videos. Key learnings: Alden and Hendry agree that structural forces have prevented the dollar from weakening to the levels impl

Teddy Vallee, founder and CIO of Pervalle Global, joins Real Vision's Jack Farley to share his strategic outlook for assets such as the U.S. dollar, technology and energy stocks, gold, and bitcoin. Vallee explains why he believes that real rates for U.S. Treasury bonds will increase, and he describes why this view makes him believe there could be a capital exodus from technology into energy equities, as well as making bitcoin and gold less attractive to hold for the short-term, although he remains bullish on these two assets over the long-term. Filmed on November 24, 2020. Key learnings: Real rates on U.S. Treasuries will likely rise. Long-term the U.S. dollar will encounter problems, but Vallee spots short-term tactical opportunity as Treasury issuance will create liquidity negative conditions over the next two-to-three months. Vallee is very positive on energy, Latin America, EM debt, as well as commodities relative to U.S. tech and bonds. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

DB-Jan22,2021: Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal joins senior editor Ash Bennington to share his latest thoughts on COVID-19, market froth, and cryptocurrency. Using models from his latest Real Vision Pro report, “Wile E. Coyote,” Raoul plots several dire situations for COVID-19 deaths. Raoul then talks about why he may smell “fire in the room” in the equity market, looking at indicators such as call option volume, activity in the pink sheet stocks, and the sky-high use of margin. Raoul and Ash then discuss the recent pullback in Bitcoin, and Raoul tells Ash what he thinks of alt coins and the risk/reward they offer to investors. Raoul reflects on the recent flatness in bond yields and the dollar, and he explores whether macro investors are turning toward crypto markets because that’s where the action is happening. In the intro, editor Jack Farley breaks down today’s economic data release for the PMIs from Germany, France, and the U.S. as well as IBM’s earnings disappointment. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit

DB-Jan21,2021: Michael Lebowitz, partner at Real Investment Advice, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss where inflation is headed and whether the market’s bet on the Fed getting it right this time has merit. Lebowitz discusses the nature of market price action for the past several months as risk assets have caught on fire and sector rotation has been occurring with incredible speed. With the growth of M1 and the velocity of money moving in opposite directions, Harrison and Lebowitz explore how the Fed might have to rethink their quantitative easing (QE) operations in order to achieve their goals of generating inflation. In light of this context, Lebowitz discusses his investment approach in this market environment. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin checks out the markets on the first full day of President Biden’s holding office. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

DB - Jan20, 2021: Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins editor Max Wiethe to update his views on how yield curve steepening is affecting equity markets and his three potential outcomes for the reflation trade. Harrison and Wiethe also debate whether the reflation trade is a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario and tee up Real Vision’s big content campaign for February where we attempt to answer the question, “Is Everything a Bubble?” In the intro, editor Jack Farley reviews price action and analyzes Morgan Stanley's latest earnings report. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Crypto Wednesday: Ari Paul, CIO & managing partner of BlockTower Capital, joins Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal to discuss the launch of Paul's fund, value accrual in the crypto space, and how far along we are in this crypto bull market. Paul explains how he views the risk curve and how he filters through crypto projects. He describes the importance of understanding timing in the markets and how he believes crypto markets have dramatically more alpha in them than traditional markets. He closes by discussing the recent regulatory attention that the crypto space has received. Key Learnings: Paul explains the game theoretical concerns of crypto hard forks and how minority chains are insecure. He believes, "We are only in the 4th inning of this bull market cycle." Paul and Pal state that there is significantly more alpha to be found in crypto markets over traditional markets, and they expect it to remain this way for the foreseeable future. Recorded on December 10, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphon

DAILY BRIEFING: Tony Greer of TG Macro tells senior editor Ash Bennington why he has derisked as market sentiment spikes and the bond market continues to sell-off. Looking at indicators such as the put-to-call ratio and open call positions, Tony explains why he has sold off a series of his risk positions, most notably because of the inauguration tomorrow of President Elect Biden. Tony shares with Ash his plan of attack for various assets including grains, fertilizer stocks, and railways, which he sees as an apt way to trade rising inflation expectations. Ash and Tony discuss the continuing ascent of cryptocurrencies, and Tony describes the signals he is looking for in order to go full risk-on. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin recaps the market sentiment the day before President-elect Biden’s inauguration. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision editors Max Wiethe and Jack Farley source questions from Real Vision members via The Exchange in this special, pre-recorded edition of The Real Vision Daily Briefing. Max and Jack discuss everything from how quantitative easing impacts the economy, to who their favorite contributors are, to how the evolution of their macro frameworks have evolved as a result of working at Real Vision. In addition to sharing their thoughts on stocks, bonds, and crypto, Max and Jack consider how their relatively young age should impact their risk tolerance and portfolio construction. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

REAL VISION LIVE REPLAY'S: Last time Jeff Booth, author of “The Price of Tomorrow,” was on Real Vision, he discussed why the central banks’ constant money printing to combat deflation is only a losing battle and how technology contributes to the strengthening of secular deflationary trends. With the arrival of COVID-19 this year, Jeff and Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal, discuss how the pandemic has catalyzed this scenario by contextualizing it within the current market environment, as well as explore what will maintain purchasing power in the long term and avoid monetary debasement. Recorded on Sep 24, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Recorded on October 28, 2020. In a peer-to-peer conversation, Tian Yang and Simon White of Variant Perception explore how inflationary pressures could serve as rocket fuel for commodities such as gold and silver, as well as unloved hydrocarbons such as oil, gas, and even coal. White and Yang envision a world of "fiscal dominance" where huge budget deficits invite inflation the likes of which the U.S. hasn’t seen since the 1970s. In this inflationary regime, White and Yang argue, hard commodities will be a source of massive returns. Their thesis is also shaped by their theories on capital scarcity, in which the less capital is deployed in a sector, the greater potential for return. Key learnings: Tian Yang and Simon White argue the world is on the brink of a new inflationary regime, driven by "fiscal dominance" and swollen central bank balance sheets, in which hard assets such as gold, silver, oil, gas, and coal will finally have their heyday. You can read more on the commodity supercycle here: https://rvtv.io

Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison for a nuanced discussion of how the economic recovery will evolve over the next few months. Raoul and Ed interpret today’s dismal retail sales figures, which indicate a contraction of total retail activity for the third straight month. With the new B117 COVID-19 variant on the move, Raoul expects economic activity to continue to decline, ebbing away at the dominant reflationary trades that are short U.S. Treasurys as well as the U.S. dollar. Ed asks Raoul his thoughts on the recent storming of the U.S. Capitol, the approaching inauguration of President Elect Joe Biden, and Biden’s new $1.9 Trillion stimulus plan. Lastly, Raoul and Ed wax philosophical about “the death of macro”: what would happen if the volatility of interest rates and currencies – the bread and butter of macro investing – were extremely low over the next decade? In the intro, editor Jack Farley provides context on bank earnings and the recent short squeeze

Managing editor Ed Harrison welcomes Real Vision’s new president, Travis Kimmel, to the Daily Briefing. Travis shares his Real Vision journey from an entrepreneur to a self-taught investor and outlines his macro framework for thinking inflation, credit creation, and currency flows. Travis explains why he isn’t fully convinced by the reflation narrative and why he believes that fiscal aid is more likely papering over the cracks than truly providing economic stimulus. Travis shares his view of Bitcoin, which he calls “a curious beast” and “a tabula rasa for narratives.” Lastly, Travis tells Ed about his concerns about the stable coin Tether. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin examines the markets reacting ahead of President-elect Biden’s stimulus speech this evening, and the implications of the jobless claims rising. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison joins Max Wiethe to discuss why he thinks US treasury yields—and not the dollar—is the key to the success or failure of the reflation trade. Together Ed and Max discuss the recent action in the bond market, the knock-on effects this has had for other reflation assets like precious metals, commodities, and equities, and the three discrete outcomes that Ed believes could arise in 2021 depending on the direction and speed of bond market moves. In the intro, Nick Correa provides an overview of the latest Consumer Price Index data. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Crypto Wednesday: Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital Holdings, joins Real Vision ceo Raoul Pal to discuss investing in the crypto space, the risk curve, and accelerating crypto adoption. Novogratz breaks down how he allocates his own crypto portfolio and touches on some of the lessons he learned in the 2017 crypto bubble. He explains the impact that COVID-19 had on crypto and the digitization of everything. Novogratz describes the different products and funds available through Galaxy Digital Holdings.Key Learnings: The crypto investment space is growing quickly, and Novogratz shares some of the lessons learned from the previous crypto bubbles he has experienced. He explains the importance of staying rational, and touches on some of the key metrics he follows, such as, market cap and fully diluted market cap. Community and use or "pick up" of a project are core components he looks at when studying a new crypto investment. Recorded on December 10, 2020. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/ad

Peter Boockvar, CIO of Bleakley Advisory Group, joins Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss how the full force of inflation that could emerge in 2021 could pose a significant risk to the Fed’s ability to execute. With Treasury yields rising, Boockvar anticipates the scrutiny of stocks with high price-to-earnings ratios to continue expanding, and once the distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine becomes more extensive in the coming months, he explains that the shift in spending toward services-oriented consumption could trigger a rise in nominal rates, but not necessarily in real rates. With the potential risk of inflation accelerating in the coming months and a yield curve that could steepen too quickly, he argues that these circumstances will restrict the Fed’s ability to act in the case of a market event. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin examines the continued rise in treasury yields and the macro economic impact of all the debt that has been printed by the U.S. government. Learn more abou

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by editor Jack Farley to break down the interplay between interest rates and duration and why lower interest rates cause growth stocks to explode higher as well as what rising yields mean for risk assets and the dollar. Ed and Jack discuss Bitcoin, analyzing its volatility profile as well as its correlation to other cryptocurrencies and to traditional financial assets such as stocks and bonds. Since Bitcoin is in the hands of more institutional investors, who also own and trade traditional assets, Ed and Jack also explore whether the success of Raoul’s “wall of money” thesis means that Bitcoin will be more positively correlated to stocks and bonds going forward. Lastly, Ed shares several market dislocations that are on his horizon which are shaping his macro framework and trade ideas. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin explains why market sentiment is dim on Monday, a modest reversal after last week’s strong start to 2021. Learn more about your ad choic

Recorded on 3 Sep, 2020. Central banks are powerful entities -- of this, there is no doubt. As of late, however, they have gone from powerful to almost omnipotent. Markets hang on their every word, and even minuscule changes in rhetoric, implied or explicit, have monumental impacts on how participants position themselves. Since March, the “Fed's got your back” mantra has rocketed markets to new all-time highs. Now, there are two questions to be had. First, what role will central banks play moving forward as they go above and beyond their mandates? Second, will their macro framework and economic toolkit be enough to lift growth and change the path of inflation? In an attempt to understand how this all plays out, we’ve invited Jeff Snider, head of global research at Alhambra Investment Partners, to sit down with Ed Harrison in this segment of Real Vision Live. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices