Adventures In Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, welcomes back Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to discuss the latest in markets. Tony breaks down what he’s seeing in the tech shakeout and explains how he’s approaching the recent correction in equity markets. He walks through the indicators he watched and how that guides his investment decisions. Ash and Tony then discuss the ongoing suppression of oil demand, especially as fears of lagging demand will persist for years rise, and how Tony is maintaining his long natural resources position. Tony then offers his final thoughts on what he’s looking out for as the week goes on. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin examines the rise of retail investors and why institutional investors are turning to platforms like Reddit and Twitter to track retail in efforts to gain an edge in the market and gain a better understanding of why they are flocking to stocks like Nikola. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington hosts managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the animal spirits that are driving this market. After reviewing historical financial panics, Ed and Ash take another look at whether options mania is exerting influence on equity price action. They explore the “Softbank narrative” through the lens of volatility investor and arbitrageur Benn Eifert, and examine how speculators are buying options from market makers who are forced to delta-hedge their position, as they don’t want to take a directional position. Lastly, Ed and Ash look forward and see if there is “another shoe to drop” as fall approaches. In the intro, Jack Farley and Ash Bennington discuss the OPEC’s latest monthly oil market report. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bill Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital, sits down with Rick Rule, president and CEO of Sprott U.S. Holdings Inc., to talk about the macro drivers of the recent precious metals bull market and what to look for when investing in miners. Using their decades of experience in the industry, Rule and Fleckenstein explain why regardless of a specific price target and because precious metals investments as a percentage of the total market for savings and investments is far below the average over the past 50 years, reversion to the mean has precious metals exposed investments poised to march higher. Rule provides his explanation as to why Warren Buffet, who has called gold a pet rock in the past, has recently allocated a portion of Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio in Barrick Gold Corporation. Fleckenstein argues that there is a problem with using traditional NAV-based analysis and provides viewers with strategies to find hidden value when analyzing miners and to avoid the pitfalls that many investors fall v

For much of the population, analysis and projections of COVID-19 cases, mortality, and the associated policy response have brought forward the importance of statistical analysis and modeling techniques that many have never learned and, at best, probably haven't used since long past college years. This has resulted in heated debate, politicization, and huge differences in policy decisions and attitudes across jurisdictions. In this Interview, Christina Ramirez, professor of biostatistics at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, sits down with Michael Green of Logica Capital Advisors to help viewers understand the constantly evolving story that the data is telling. Together, they examine the quality of the available data sets, how the consequences of lockdowns have born themselves out in other data like reports of child abuse, and how data indicates that as our knowledge and experience has grown, so too has our ability to combat the pandemic. Viewers can find more info about Christina Ramirez's work and ac

Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal is joined by senior editor Ash Bennington to reflect on the latest financial newsflow as well as Real Vision's new projects. After briefly discussing oil’s recent price action of oil, Raoul and Ash break down how the Fed's action is affecting different segments of the credit market, and they also weigh in on Jeffrey Gundlach's recent comments that default rates on high-yield credit could double. Raoul then explains why the importance of demographics means that inflation is not always purely a monetary phenomenon. Raoul and Ash then discuss Real Vision Creative Studios, the forthcoming Real Vision crypto channel, as well as "The Exchange," Real Vision’s brand new platform for members to share knowledge with each other. In the intro, Ash speaks to editor Jack Farley about Nikola, Softbank, as well as a week of ample credit issuance. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by Tyler Neville to discuss how the recent market sell-off may have been a temporary equity volatility-driven event due to credit spreads. They question where economic growth is going to come from and how funding in the private markets may fuel it. Real Vision reporter Haley Draznin weighs in on the juxtaposition between the real economy and the financial economy and Citigroup’s announcement today naming Jane Fraser as CEO, becoming the first woman to lead a major Wall Street bank. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington is joined by managing editor Ed Harrison to discuss the market plumbing that’s fueling the wild price action on Wall Street. Ed and Ash first break down the tremendous pressures on banks, which find themselves in a cash-strapped economy lending to businesses with drastically-curtailed incomes. Ed then weighs the notion that central banks are ‘cartels’ in that they have a monopoly on the money supply. Ed and Ash then analyze the true effect of QE, exploring whether it will actually spur lending growth rather than just inflating asset prices. In the intro, Peter Cooper discusses the JOLTS report and the woes of commercial real estate. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington is joined by Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, to discuss the dramatic turmoil playing out in equity markets. Dillian discusses how the speculative bets in derivatives markets affect price action, and provides greater clarity on Softbank’s role in the ongoing saga. Dillian and Bennington also discuss Tesla’s selloff, the upcoming Canadian election, and the U.S. dollar. In the intro, Jack Farley explores the true effect of Softbank’s call-buying. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this Real Vision Daily Briefing, managing editor, Ed Harrison, and senior editor, Ash Bennington, answer questions from Real Vision subscribers, about markets, their respective journeys, as well as Real Vision itself. Ed shares his experience of working in the foreign service, and he describes how his time spent working in the fixed income markets caused him to become more receptive to Austrian economics. Ash discusses his journey of transitioning from working in fintech to becoming a financial reporter, and he also explores his passion for cryptocurrency. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

History is often overlooked and misunderstood, especially financial history. Dan Oliver of Myrmikan Capital, LLC and Simon Mikhailovich, managing director of The Bullion Reserve, explain the role of gold and the credit cycle through history, comparing today to the credit crises that have occurred roughly every 100 years since the 1720's – the Mississippi Bubble in France, Europe's reckoning with a post-Napoleon order in the 1820's, and the post-World War I calamities of the 1920's and 1930's. Using history to set the table for their discussion of gold, central banking, and the credit cycle, Dan and Simon break down how these forces push the monetary system down the dangerous "goat path" towards unwinding. Despite the seemingly dour circumstances, Oliver and Mikhailovich explain why there is still hope for wealth preservation and even incredible returns for those investors who choose not to continue down the "goat path."  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Milton Berg, Founder and CIO of Milton Berg Advisors, joins managing editor Ed Harrison to analyze the technical patterns and market internals on his radar. From his repository of over 10,000 indicators, Berg selects and discusses the ones he thinks are most compelling, such as 5-day breadth thrust, consecutive volume-up days, and the put/call ratio. Berg then observes that the equity markets are behaving like commodities, in that they are trending upward as volume spikes. Lastly, Berg and Harrison try and reconcile some oddly bullish indicators with the macro backdrop with Berg casting doubt on the long-term sustainability of central bank’s ability to ballast asset prices.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, is joined by senior editor, Ash Bennington, to reflect on a week of extreme price action. They analyze the dramatic crash of U.S. equities on Thursday and its connection to the speculative activity in derivatives markets. After weighing the significance of Softbank’s unmasking as the big “NASDAQ Whale” that has been buying a massive amount of calls on big tech stocks, Raoul and Ash have a broader discussion about how volatility regimes evolve and bleed into each other. Raoul then provides a strategic update on his “unfolding” thesis, shares his thoughts on Europe, and explores the possibility of a W-shaped recession. Finally, Raoul and Ash discuss the “Festival of Learning” that Real Vision hosted this week, as well as give a sneak peek of Real Vision’s new community feature, “The Exchange.” In the intro, Jack Farley and Ash discuss today’s jobs report and look at market volatility. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts Dave Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading, to discuss the levels he’s looking at after U.S. equity markets cratered today. Dave considers whether there are structural changes occurring in the markets and provides his insight into the frothiness by drawing comparisons between now and markets in the early 2000s. He also breaks down his tactical approach and how he makes his picks. Ash is also joined by Real Vision’s Roger Hirst, sharing his thoughts on how rising implied volatility was signaling a potential drawdown in the past few weeks. Roger explains how he analyzes the VIX and the volatility curve to understand this rare market signal and expands on Ed Harrison’s points about derivatives playing into rising volatility and what bond yields converging to zero means for real yields. Roger also provides his response to James Altucher’s segment from yesterday’s Daily Briefing. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins managing editor, Ed Harrison, to talk about the risk of an equity drawdown for retail investors in particular. Ed and Ash explore how market volatility is increasing and the fact that bond yields globally have converged to zero makes a drawdown that much more severe. They also talk about how the activity in the derivatives market is playing into the uptick in market volatility. Ash also hosts James Altucher to discuss his recent article in the New York Post about the narrative of the death of cities, and Ed and Ash provide their thoughts. In the intro, Nick Correa discusses Australia’s slide into recession after almost 3 decades of economic expansion. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, hosts Tony Greer, editor of The Morning Navigator, to discuss how the Fed’s “inflation running hot” memo has been translated by the markets. With a weakening dollar, rally in TIPS, and a steeper yield curve, Tony argues that the asset price inflation happening is the way the Fed had intended it to be and that understanding how the Fed fits into the equation will shape the investor’s understanding of the sustainability of this rally. He and Ash examine the price action and continuous rotation across different sectors as well as how commodities continuing to rip is an expression of an ever-weakening dollar. Tony then provides his forward guidance for the remainder of the week. In the intro, Nick Correa goes over the newest U.S. manufacturing numbers as well as what’s happening with copper and other industrial metals. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How is it that the real economy can be so weak while the asset markets continue to fly? Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison explores this and more with senior editor Ash Bennington. Ed and Ash discuss the ever-widening chasm between Wall Street and Main Street and use Hyman Minsky’s “two-price model” as a framework to understand this dichotomy, and they analyze how asset markets have responded differently to interest rate cuts than the markets for goods and services. In that context, they explain how the sinking labor force participation rate reveals a hidden unemployment which will keep inflation subdued. In the intro, Ash and Jack Farley discuss Jack’s recent interview with Jason Buck on the Real Vision blog, and they also interpret the re-opening woes of airlines and colleges. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Diego Parrilla, portfolio manager and author of "The Anti-Bubbles" and "The Energy World," returns to discuss his poignant predictions that are coming to fruition one-by-one in this conversation with Real Vision CEO and co-founder, Raoul Pal. As well, Parrilla gives a master class on how he has developed his own macro framework and the subsequent portfolio construction and management that has served him extremely well both before and after the March crash. After establishing his current outlook, Parrilla focuses on the 5% of his portfolio dedicated to finding outsized returns using options and what he calls the goalkeepers of your portfolio.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

 David Samra, Portfolio Manager of Artisan Partners’ International Value Fund, speaks with Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison about the subtle art of value investing. Samra, who defines value investing simply as buying something well below its intrinsic value, shares the four criteria he and his fund use when looking at stocks: undervaluation, quality, financial strength and management alignment. He and Ed also discuss how investors can avoid the pitfalls of so-called "value-traps" – i.e. when a stock is cheap because there’s a reason it's cheap. Lastly, Samra analyzes two companies that are in his fund’s portfolio: ABB and Compass Group PLC. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, react to the new U.S. consumer spending report out today from the Commerce Department. Despite gains for three consecutive months, momentum fell as the COVID-19 pandemic lingers and fiscal support dries up. They also discuss inflation rhetoric following yesterday’s announcement from the Fed to keep interest rates lower for longer as well as the Fed’s dual mandate and how they may need to retire the use of the Phillips Curve. Real Vision editor and reporter Haley Draznin is introduced for the first time to discuss her new role and what financial news stories she is keeping a close eye on. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With just days to go before The Festival of Learning kicks off on Wednesday Sept 2nd, Real Vision Co-Founder and CEO Raoul Pal and Real Vision Co-Founder and Chief Creative Officer Damian Horner hosted a Pre-Party. They announced more than 10 new additions to the festival line-up, answered your festival questions, and lots more. Don’t have a ticket yet? You’re running out of time… Get your ticket here - http://realvision.com/festival Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices