This Week In Brazil

On May 20, two top aides to Mexico City Mayor Clara Brugada were shot dead in a rare daytime attack, raising questions about security under Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum. Known for her tougher stance on organized crime, Sheinbaum has overseen a drop in homicides and taken bold steps like extraditing cartel leaders. In this episode we speak with security expert Eduardo Guerrero to unpack the recent violence, what has defined the Sheinbaum era of security policy and what we can expect moving forward.

President Javier Milei has made global headlines with his radical economic reforms and bold rhetoric, earning praise from figures like Donald Trump and Silicon Valley elites. At home, his record is mixed: inflation has dropped dramatically and a major IMF deal has been secured, but poverty remains high and economic imbalances persist. With his approval rating holding steady below 50%, Argentina stands at a crossroads. Will Milei deliver transformational change, or will discontent shift momentum to other political forces? To unpack what’s happening on the ground, we’re joined by political consultant Ana Iparraguirre.

Just over a year after Bernardo Arévalo’s tense but ultimately successful inauguration as president of Guatemala, his administration faces a complex mix of progress and mounting challenges. Elected on an anti-corruption platform, Arévalo has delivered key reforms and economic growth—but his popularity is waning, and governability remains uncertain amid fierce opposition. In this episode, part of AQ’s special report on Guatemala, we dive into the country’s political, social, and economic landscape. Guests Claudia Méndez Arriaza, a veteran investigative journalist, and Juan Carlos Zapata of FUNDESA, join us to discuss political tensions, public expectations and development challenges.

Cuba is facing its worst crisis in decades, with blackouts and a mass exodus that has seen 20% of the population flee in five years. In this episode, we shed light on everyday life amid ongoing economic hardship, explore the durability of the Cuban regime and assess whether its grip on power is at risk. The conversation expands to Cuba’s evolving relationships with key international allies, including Russia, China, and Venezuela. Finally, we turn to U.S. foreign policy, focusing on the implications of Trump's return to the White House. Our guest is Patrick Oppmann, CNN's Havana bureau chief.  

With Brazil about a year and a half away from the 2026 elections, political dynamics are shifting once again. The economy is growing at 3%, and employment remains high, yet President Lula’s approval rating has dropped to 41%—the lowest of any of his three terms. Meanwhile, the right may be gaining momentum, fueled by the Supreme Court’s decision to put former President Jair Bolsonaro on trial for his alleged 2022 coup attempt. Bolsonaro has appealed to conservative global figures, comparing his legal battles to those of Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen. In this episode, Guilherme Casarões analyzes Brazil’s evolving political and economic landscape. Casarões is a professor at Fundação Getúlio Vargas’s São Paulo School of Business Administration and a contributor to AQ.

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum is enjoying remarkable popularity, garnering over 80% approval, while Mexico navigates shifting demands from U.S. President Donald Trump, economic uncertainty and security concerns. In this episode we delve into how she differs from her predecessor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, her evolving approach to the Trump administration, how she is handling Mexico's security challenges and whether her popularity can endure. Our guest is Viri Ríos, a writer, political scientist and an analyst of Mexican politics and public policy. Ríos is a close observer of Morena, President Sheinbaum's party, and its overall political project.

Organized crime is a persistent and evolving challenge in Latin America. At the moment crime syndicates are seeing unprecedented financial gains, fueled not only by a surge in cocaine production—more than doubling in the past decade, according to the UN—but also by profits from illegal gold mining and human trafficking. As security concerns rise, these issues are set to play a crucial role in elections in Ecuador, Honduras, Chile, and Colombia. Meanwhile, the U.S. government, under President Donald Trump, has been pressuring Mexico to curb drug and migrant trafficking, going so far as to impose tariffs on its neighbor. In this episode, we look at how organized crime is shifting in Latin America in 2025. Our guest, Jeremy McDermott, co-founder of InSight Crime.  

A month into Donald Trump’s second presidency, Latin America has become a key focus of his administration. From high-stakes negotiations with Mexico to his stated goal of reclaiming the Panama Canal, Trump’s policies have already had concrete consequences for the region. While leaders like Argentina’s Javier Milei and El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele welcome his return, others question the reliability of the U.S. as an ally compared to China and Europe. To unpack these developments, this episode features journalist and writer Michael Reid, a former Latin America correspondent for The Economist and the author of Forgotten Continent: A History of the New Latin America.

As Donald Trump returns to the White House, much focus was expected on Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Cuba, but Panama has surprisingly taken center stage, even becoming the site of Marco Rubio’s first trip abroad as Secretary of State. President Trump has said the U.S. should take the Panama Canal back. Are his true goals reducing China’s influence in key infrastructure projects and securing greater Panamanian cooperation on migration and trade, or is he serious about the threats? While China’s role has grown, they don’t control the canal. Meanwhile, Panama’s deep historical and economic ties to the U.S. remain strong, fueling confusion in Panama about Trump’s intentions. In this episode we talk to Panamanian political analyst Rodrigo Noriega about Panama’s past, present and future, assessing how the country's political class, public opinion the canal authorities are processing this delicate moment.

Nearly a year ago, Ecuador faced a surge of violence when drug gangs took over a TV station and kidnapped police, marking the country's worst security crisis. Since then, President Daniel Noboa has made modest progress, with homicides down 16%, but 2024 still ranked as Ecuador's second most violent year. Noboa also faced a severe energy crisis, with droughts leading to planned blackouts that hurt his previously strong public support. Despite economic challenges, including a potential recession, Noboa remains a leading candidate in the upcoming February 9 elections, narrowly ahead of correísta candidate Luisa González. As Ecuador prepares to vote, we analyze the fight against organized crime, the economic situation and how either Noboa or González might handle a potential Trump presidency in the U.S. Our guest is Sebastián Hurtado, the co-founder and CEO of Prófitas, a political risk consultancy based in Quito.

Peru quickly became one of the first countries in the cross hairs of the incoming Trump administration because of the recently-inaugurated Chancay port, which is run by the Chinese company Cosco Shipping. In this episode, we ask Alfredo Thorne, a former finance minister of Peru, what is special about the Chancay port, what this project tells us about China's plans in Latin America and how Peru is likely to navigate the tension between the U.S. in China for which the country has become a lightning rod.  

In this episode we look at what to expect from Latin America’s economies in 2025. Ernesto Revilla, chief economist for Latin America at Citigroup, evaluates the impact of Donald Trump’s return on the region’s economic outlook, his predictions regarding trade tensions, and how ideological affinities between presidents could affect economic policy. He also analyses the health of Latin America’s economies independently of Trump’s decisions, focusing on Mexico, Argentina and Brazil, but also commenting on Andean nations, as well as Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic.

Since Donald Trump’s election there have been fireworks between him and Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum. President-elect Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of 25 percent as two leaders embark on what are likely to be contentious negotiations over migration, border control and trade. In this episode we discuss the potential consequences for Mexico and what is Sheinbaum’s strategy. We also assess the current health of the Mexican economy as the president marks two months in office. Our guest is Valeria Moy, director of director of the Instituto Mexicano para la Competitividad, a think tank based in Mexico City. 

Donald Trump’s second presidency will likely bring an even stronger focus on Latin America than his first term did. Trump talked often about Latin America in the campaign, mainly through the lens of immigration and trade. In this episode we explore the possible consequences of his administration for the region. What could happen to Mexico-U.S. relations, as the two countries prepare to review the USMCA trade deal? How is Trump likely to act regarding Venezuela? What does his election mean for the right in the region? And how will the U.S. address China's growing presence in the region? Mauricio Cárdenas is a former finance minister of Colombia and a professor at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs.  

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has an approval rating of about 50%. Unemployment in the country is at its lowest level in a decade and the economy is expected to grow about 3% this year, beating forecasts from just a few months ago. But despite all that, in recent mayoral elections across the country, Lula's Workers’ Party (PT) finished ninth in the number of mayors elected. The big winners were politicians from the centrão, the so-called big center, a coalition of parties that range on the ideological spectrum from the center to the center right and right. These are also the parties that wield control in Brazil’s Congress. In this episode, an analysis of what these results suggest about Brazilian politics today, why the economy is seeing improvement and what is impacting growth potential. Our guest is Christopher Garman, managing director for the Americas, Eurasia Group. 

Latin America is the world's breadbasket. The region is now the source of more than 60% of the world’s soy, almost half its corn and more than a quarter of its beef. At the same time, about 28% of people in Latin America and the Caribbean don’t have enough food for themselves. On today’s podcast, we’ll explore Latin America’s so-called “food paradox.” Why is it that as the region produces and exports more food than ever, it’s also having trouble feeding its own people?  Our guest is Brandee Mchale, Head of Community Investing and Development at Citi and President of the Citi Foundation. She discusses what is causing this paradox and how the private sector is implicated in solving it. 

Although Democrats still lead among Latinos, Republicans have grown their share of support among that community in the last two elections. Looking ahead to the upcoming contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, we discuss some of the reasons for that shift, the long and little-known history of the Latino population in the United States and how economic and social issues shapes their political views. Marie Arana, author of LatinoLand: A Portrait of America's Largest and Least Understood Minority, argues that Democrats and politicians of all stripes are just beginning to understand them.

Claudia Sheinbaum will take office as Mexico's new president next week, on October 1, 2024. Often described as a technocrat, she also supports some of current President AMLO's more controversial policies, such as the judicial reform that was just approved. In this episode Vanessa Rubio, a professor at the London School of Economics and a former senator and deputy minister, shares what she expects from Sheinbaum's government. Rubio argues her administration will take shape as a new blend—one that could be deemed “techno-populist.”

Javier Milei has so far succeeded in making drastic changes to Argentina's economic policies. In this episode we evaluate what has worked and what hasn't, and who have been the winners and losers. Milei's deep spending cuts have produced in the first 5 months of 2024 a primary fiscal surplus of 1.1% of GDP and inflation is down to about 4% a month. Poverty however continues to rise and the IMF projects an economic contraction of 3,5% for 2024. What do these results amount to in terms of real improvement to the economy? What challenges remain? And what are the most likely political and economic outcomes of Milei's policies? Our guest is Eduardo Levy Yeyati, a former chief economist of the Central Bank of Argentina, and currently a professor at the School of Government at Torcuato di Tella University in Buenos Aires. He also discusses the need for a revival of centrist politics in Latin America.

The entry of Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential race has completely transformed the election. In this episode we ask what we can expect from her Latin America policy were she to win in November. How do leaders in the region perceive her? What are her views on migration? What can we learn from her record as Vice-President, tasked with the challenging issue of addressing the factors that make people from Central America migrate to the U.S.? What is her stance on trade, and how might she handle the 2026 review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)? Our guest is Roberta S. Jacobson, a former State Department official.