This Week In Brazil

When Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took office in January 2023, the challenges ahead of him loomed large. A year on, the economy has grown more than expected, at 3%, and his administration has passed a historic tax reform. Nevertheless, the executive's relationship with Brazil's conservative, transactional congress remains a reason for concern. In this episode, one of Brazil's best-sourced political journalists discusses the ups and downs of Lula's first year, the strength of Brazil's conservative movement and  former President Jair Bolsonaro, and the main challenges expected for 2024.

Post-electoral tensions in Guatemala and the territorial spat between Guyana and Venezuela have the Western Hemisphere on alert. We speak to someone uniquely positioned to provide insight into these crises and reflect on how the international community is reacting. Frank Mora is the U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States (OAS), the Washington-based institution that brings together countries in the Americas. Before assuming his current position, Mora was a Pentagon official in the Barack Obama administration.

One year on from the political crisis that engulfed Peru in December 2022, with protests almost daily on the streets of Lima, the country is still facing a staggering number of risks in both politics and the economy. 12 months after then-President Pedro Castillo tried to illegally dissolve Congress and was removed from office, his replacement, Dina Boluarte, is now facing potential charges related to her government’s heavy-handed repression of protests. On the economic front, most  analysts say Peru is in recession. In this episode, we try to understand what is happening and explore if things will improve soon. Our guest is Luis Miguel Castilla, a political consultant, a former finance minister between 2011 and 2014, and a former ambassador to the United States.

Since being elected on November 19, Javier Milei has changed the tone of some of the more radical policy proposals he campaigned on. He has backtracked on his aggressive rhetoric toward some of Argentina’s largest trading partners, such as Brazil. He has suggested that dollarization may occur not soon. And he had a cordial conversation with Pope Francis, whom he had described as the devil's man on earth. What does this about-face mean? Is a more pragmatic Milei emerging? And if that is the case, what are the circumstances he will face once in office -- what are his key tests ahead? In this episode, a conversation with Eduardo Levy Yeyati, a professor at the School of Government at Torcuato di Tella University in Buenos Aires, on near-term political scenarios as well as a big-picture view of Argentina's structural challenges.

This past week, we started to get a sense of what Mexico's June 2024 general elections will look like. Samuel García, the young governor of Nuevo León, Mexico's industrial powerhouse, announced he will run, while former Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, who was seen as a possible aspirant, said he will not. Although García’s candidacy is seen as a long shot, how might it affect the campaigns of the current favorite, Claudia Sheinbaum, from the governing Morena coalition, and Xóchitl Gálvez, the candidate from the opposition Frente Amplio por México? What does this electoral cycle reveal about the current state of Mexican politics? And what are the factors that could shape the race going forward? Political consultant Carlos Ramírez joins us to explore these and other questions.

Chile’s new constitutional proposal is ready and will be put to a plebiscite on Dec. 17. The document was received earlier week by President Gabriel Boric after a mostly right-wing  Constitutional Council drafted the text. This episode does a political overview of the country. We discuss what this new constitution would change, if approved, and look more broadly at the status of the left and the right, at Gabriel Boric’s political future and the state of the economy. Our guest in Claudia Heiss, Head of Political Science at Universidad de Chile.

After a decade of negative or meager economic expansion, Brazil's GDP is expected to increase by 3.2% in 2023. Significant reforms, such as tax reform, are being discussed, and a modern, green economy could take hold. How successfully is the Lula government handling the economic challenges, and which areas will benefit the most? In this episode, Arminio Fraga, one of Brazil's top policy minds, analyzes the structural dysfunctions at the root of Brazil's economy and suggests ways forward. Fraga, a former president of Brazil’s central bank, is now the chair of the Institute for Health Policy Studies (IEPS).

Amid Argentina's worst economic crisis in more than 20 years, the self-described anarcho-capitalist Javier Milei will now face Economy Minister Sergio Massa in a December 19 runoff to become Argentina’s next president. Both are fighting to attract voters from other candidates’ camps. Can Milei win over moderate voters? Can the governing coalition put Massa over the top with inflation nearing 140%? In this episode, Brian Winter and Ana Iparraguirre explore what’s ahead for Massa and Milei, who might have the upper hand, and how each candidate would govern if elected. Iparraguirre is senior vice president at GBAO, a political strategy consultancy based in Washington. 

In this special edition of the Americas Quarterly Podcast, an interview with Juan S. Gonzalez, the White House's top Latin America official, about the potentially transformative deal announced this week between the U.S. and Venezuela. The U.S. is partially lifting economic sanctions that have been in place for several years on  Nicolás Maduro's regime. In return, Maduro has committed to holding free and fair elections in the second half of 2024. What happens if the Maduro government doesn’t hold up its end of the bargain? Will the opposition's likely candidate, María Corina Machado, be allowed to run? Will these changes improve conditions on the ground in Venezuela? Gonzalez answers these and other questions. He is senior director for the Western Hemisphere at the National Security Council.

After a “lost decade” that saw economies stagnate across Latin America and the Caribbean, a new optimism appears to take hold in some areas. 2023 will be the third consecutive year the IMF and other multilateral institutions have raised their growth forecasts for the region after they proved too pessimistic. Foreign direct investment soared 55% last year to $224 billion, its highest value on record. But the region’s growth rate remains below its potential, trailing other emerging markets in Africa and East Asia. In this episode, former Colombian finance minister Mauricio Cárdenas joins us with an overview of where the potential for growth lies and what are the obstacles to achieving that.

Venezuela is reaching a critical moment as the country's opposition prepares to choose its candidate in primaries on October 22. The winner will run against Nicolás Maduro in a general election next year. On this week's episode, AQ'S Brian Winter speaks to Ana Vanessa Herrero, The Washington Post correspondent in Caracas, about what the opposition and Maduro's endgame could be and how talks with the U.S. on conditions for free and fair elections are playing out as Venezuelans endure an uncertain environment, a recessive economy and an annual inflation above 400%.

Bolivia’s former president Evo Morales has announced he will run again in 2025, likely competing with the current head of the executive, Luis Arce, whom Morales helped elect. The decision is splitting their party. In this episode, we take a big-picture look at the Andean country, how its economy and politics have changed since Morales was forced out of office in 2019, how he has changed and what political consequences his return could bring. We also discuss what to expect from Bolivia's efforts at lithium exploration. Our guest is Raul Peñaranda, an award-winning journalist, the director of the news website Brújula Digital and the president of the La Paz Association of Journalists.

Ecuador is facing many of the same issues we see across Latin America today. Long one of the region’s most peaceful countries, it has recently seen a daunting increase in violence, as international drug cartels use the country as a transit point. It is also immersed in a debate about how and whether to exploit its oil and minerals, during an era of rapid climate change. Politics have been unstable this year. In October there will be a runoff for a new president to serve out the rest of Guillermo Lasso’s term, after he invoked a constitutional mechanism that triggered fresh elections for both the presidency and the legislature. In this episode, Brian Winter and Will Freeman discuss the two candidates, Luisa González and Daniel Noboa, and how Ecuador might fit into wider regional trends when it comes to ideological tendencies and environmental issues. Freeman, a columnist for Americas Quarterly, is a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and a political scientist.

Mexico’s economy is shifting into a higher gear in 2023, thanks in part to stronger than expected investment from nearshoring. This July, we saw a historic moment as Mexico passed China to become the biggest exporter of goods to the United States, reclaiming that title for the first time in 20 years. What does this transformation mean in practice for Mexico's industrial hubs? Is the country taking full advantage of the nearshoring trend, or could it be doing more? What is the relevance of politics and the 2024 elections to investors' decisions? Our guests today are two Bloomberg journalists who recently reported from the industrial hub of Monterey, in the north of Mexico: Maya Averbuch, an Economy and Government Reporter based in Mexico City, and Leda Alvim, Markets Reporter at Bloomberg News, based in São Paulo. 

This month will mark the 50th anniversary of Augusto Pinochet’s coup in Chile. President Gabriel Boric has made the commemoration of that tragic chapter in Latin American history a major moment in his government, taking several initiatives to atone for the past, but the right is pushing back, at a moment when public opinion about the coup is changing. In 2005, an average of 24% thought that the military was right in carrying out the coup. In 2023, that number has risen to 36%. In the background is Chile's turbulent recent history: the massive protests that took place in 2019, the pandemic, an economic downturn, a security crisis, the rejection of last year’s proposed constitution and the ongoing attempt at drafting a new one. In such a context, how are we to interpret such poll numbers? What do discussions about the coup say about the state of politics in Chile today? And what does this moment mean for the country's future? Robert Funk, assistant professor of political science at the University of C

Recent scandals involving former President Jair Bolsonaro have left Brazil’s conservative movement in a state of flux. Meanwhile, the Lula administration is off to a relatively calm and successful start, with a 60% approval rating, the economy expected to grow more than predicted and inflation under control. What does that mean for the country’s politics going forward? In this episode, Brian Winter is joined by Fábio Zanini, editor of the “Painel” political column at Folha de S. Paulo, who has spent years covering the conservative movement that brought Bolsonaro to power. They discuss what to expect from the opposition and what the current political climate in Brasília means for President Lula's economic agenda.

This is a critical moment for Latin America’s economies, with analysts foreseeing better than expected GDP growth this year in countries like Brazil and Mexico. The outlook, however, is uneven. In Argentina, Peru and Chile, there are big questions about where economies are headed, largely because of politics. In today’s episode, an overview of what to expect in upcoming months — where the risks lie, where there might be reasons for optimism and how external factors, like China’s growing economic problems, could affect the region. Our guest is Ernesto Revilla, head of Latin America economics at Citigroup.

The radical libertarian economist Javier Milei placed first in Argentina’s primary election, upsetting the two-party system of the past 20 years. Milei describes climate change as a socialist lie, advocates for closing the central bank and chastises Argentina’s political class as a self-dealing 'caste'. Milei's success echoes that of recent outsiders on the right like Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, both of whom Milei has said he admires. In this episode, Brian Winter and political analyst and professor Ignacio Labaqui examine what explains his rise and if he actually has a chance to win when the real voting takes place in October. They also discuss the possible paths forward for the other candidates, Sergio Massa, of the governing Peronist coalition, and Patricia Bullrich, of the center-right party of former president Mauricio Macri.

Latin America is the world’s most vulnerable region to cyberattacks, according to one study, and has suffered several dramatic hacks recently in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and elsewhere. In this episode, Randy Pestana, Associate Director of Cyber Policy Program at Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy, Florida International University, tells the stories of some of the region's biggest attacks in recent years and explains why some countries are particularly vulnerable, who is responsible for the attacks and what governments, companies and individuals can and should do to protect themselves. 

Bernardo Arévalo, an academic, former diplomat, and son of a famed revolutionary president surprisingly made it to Guatemala's election runoff, upsetting the country's ruling elites. What could happen next? Is his candidacy in jeopardy? Who makes up the group that Guatemalans refer to as the 'pacto de corruptos' trying to undermine the nation's democracy? Is the U.S. using its influence to push for free and fair elections in Guatemala? In this conversation, former ambassador Stephen McFarland discusses how power operates in the country where he lived and worked for years and an election he describes as the most surprising in recent Central American history.