This Week In Brazil

Since the election on July 28 Nicolás Maduro has unleashed a wave of repression not seen in Venezuela before. The question on everyone's mind is, what now? Will Venezuela move further down the path of a dictatorship, or is there some chance of a negotiated solution that might lead to a democratic transition? In this episode, Roberto Patiño, a civil society leader and a member of one of the opposition parties, discusses the opposition's strategies, evaluates the positions taken by Brazil, Colombia, the U.S. and Mexico and describes what he sees as cracks in the Maduro regime.

Ecuador’s young president Daniel Noboa is engaged in a tough battle with organized crime groups that paralyzed the country earlier this year. It’s been six months since that dramatic series of events. In this episode we take stock of what has happened since. How successfully has the government dealt with the security crisis? How valid are comparisons between Ecuador’s crackdown and that of Nayib Bukele in El Salvador? What has happened to Noboa’s popularity after it spiked following those attacks in January? And is Noboa considered the favorite to be reelected in Ecuador’s next presidential election, scheduled for February 2025? Or guest is Sebastian Hurtado, a political risk consultant based in Quito. 

Gustavo Petro is halfway through his presidential term in Colombia. The first leftist president in the country's modern history faced suspicion from the political and economic establishment from day 1. He’s used sweeping rhetoric to describe his plans for an economic overhaul, as well as his security initatives But in practice, Petro has struggled to translate his speeches into reality. In this episode we do a broad overview of Petro’s government so far, trying to separate rhetoric from reality, understand areas where his government has been successful and identify challenges and risks in his remaining two years in office. Our guest is Laura Lizarazo, Senior Analyst for the Andean region in Control Risks' Global Risk Analysis. 

Voters throughout Latin America are craving solutions to the spread of organized crime. In today's episode, we’ll look in detail at how Nayib Bukele executed the crackdown on gangs in El Salvador, analyze the extent to which the model has been adopted by some politicians around the region and evaluate why that is more difficult than it seems. Our guest is Manuel Meléndez-Sánchez, a doctoral candidate in government at Harvard University. He just co-authored with Alberto Vergara, professor of political and social sciences at the Universidad del Pacífico in Lima, a piece entitled "The Bukele Model: Will It Spread?", published in the Journal of Democracy.

In Brazil, unemployment is at a record low, inflation is under control and growth projections are being revised up. However, the Lula administration is having a hard time moving forward with expected reforms, and financial markets are reacting negatively. This episode dissects the forces behind these trends. Why is Lula facing resistance in Congress? What are the economic debates under way inside the administration, and who is winning? How is Lula himself handling the challenges of a third term? Our guest is political analyst Celso Rocha de Barros, a sociologist, an analyst for Brazil's Central Bank, a columnist for Folha de S.Paulo, a podcaster at Revista Piauí and the author of PT, Uma História, a book about the history of Lula's Worker's Party.

Twice a year the AQ Podcast takes stock of Latin America’s economies — what the region is doing well and where the challenges are. There is good news — inflation below OECD levels, for example, but growth is still below potential, according to our guest, William F. Maloney, Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean at the World Bank. He argues that more competition within countries could be a motor for change. William also provides some clarity on the trend that’s been at the top of everyones minds when it comes to investment in the region, nearshoring, and the extent to which it is actually happening.Subscribe to the Americas Quarterly Podcast on Apple, Spotify and other platformsGuest: William F. Maloney is Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean at the World BankHost: Brian Winter is the editor-in-chief of Americas QuarterlyIf you’d like to know more: Mexico’s Post-Election Fiscal Reality Check by Carlos Ramírez FuentesAQ Podcast | A Surprising Case for Optimism in PeruCan Copper Pric

Venezuelans are scheduled to vote for president on July 28th. In today’s episode, we look at the state of the negotiations between the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro and the opposition, assess how inclined Maduro is to accept a possible defeat and if there’s any chance for a transition to democracy. The opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia, a former diplomat and academic, has about 60% support in polls, compared to support of just 9% support for President Maduro. Our guest is Michael Penfold, Professor at the Instituto de Estudios Superiores de Administración (IESA), Global Fellow at the Wilson Center and author of El país que se muerde la cola (2023).

Claudia Sheinbaum's victory in the Mexican elections was expected, but the 30-point margin surprised many and gave her and the Morena coalition a mandate like few others in Latin America’s recent political history. In this episode, Viri Ríos, a scholar and one of Mexico's most prominent intellectual personalities, discusses how the country got here and looks ahead to what she thinks Sheinbaum and Morena do with that power, as well as to what extent Sheinbaum’s six-year term be a continuation of her predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

Peru's story in the past 20 years has gone from fast growth and poverty reduction to fractious politics and a dwindling economy. In this episode, Alfredo Thorne, a former finance minister (2016-2017), makes the case for how the country could get back on track to restore growth and distribute it more fairly between rich and poor, Lima and the rest of the country. In his view, high copper prices and new ports expected to be inaugurated soon provide that opportunity, despite the risks associated with a dependency on commodities for development.

Panama’s president-elect José Raúl Mulino assumes control of a country struggling with challenges that pertain not only to its population but to many other countries as well. Climate change is affecting the Panama canal and there is rising migration through the Darien Gap. Panama is also a theater for the U.S.-China competition. In today's episode we explore what to expect from Mulino's term in office regarding these and other issues, such as the copper mine that has been a center of controversy in the past year and what's next for Ricardo Martinelli, the former president who helped put Mulino in office while simultaneously hiding in the Nicaraguan embassy to escape a conviction for money laundering. Our guest is Mat Youkee, a journalist who has covered Latin America for many years and Panama since 2018.

In an attempt to gauge what another Joe Biden or Donald Trump administration would mean for policy toward Latin America, the AQ Podcast is bringing in people with intimate knowledge of both camps. In this episode, Ricardo Zúniga, a major figure on Latin America policy under the Barack Obama and Biden administrations, reviews the major events on the past fours years and looks ahead to what could change if Biden is reelected in November. He discusses overarching policy strategies towards the region, how the U.S. has addressed China’s growing presence there, migration and trade, as well as the specific dynamics of the relationships with Venezuela, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, Cuba and Argentina.

Since Javier Milei took office in December, life has become even more difficult in Argentina. Real salaries have fallen by more than 20% since December. Inflation has lowered, but is still running high, above 270% on an annual basis. Yet Milei’s approval rating is still around 50%. In today's episode we discuss with pollster and political strategist Ana Iparraguirre why that is. We also talk about the state of his pro-market agenda, what he is likely to achieve in the near future and what to make of his search for prominence in the global stage. Iparraguirre is a partner at GBAO, a Washington-based political strategy consultancy.

Brazil's economy performed better than expected last year, expanding almost 3%. But in 2024 the outlook is more complex, as last year's sources of growth are not expected to perform in the same way. There is also a tug of war inside the Lula administration about public spending and government oversight in national oil company Petrobras. In this episode we assess Latin America's largest economy from an investment perspective and look at the politics behind recent government decisions and what is to come. Our guest is Mário Braga, a senior analyst for Brazil at Control Risks consultancy firm.

The Venezuelan dictatorship is preparing to hold an election on July 28th. Despite signs that the race will not be free or fair, the opposition is willing to participate. In this episode, we dive into the motives and tactics on both sides. What is Maduro looking for, and is there a real chance he could lose? What is going on behind the curtains with the opposition – why are they willing to participate, how divided is this, and who are the members likely to support? Our guest is Jose Vicente Carrasquero, a mathematician and political scientist who teaches at Miami Dade College.

Organized crime has in recent years begun to affect formerly calm countries like Chile and Ecuador, while remaining strong in places such as Mexico and Brazil. In this episode, an analysis of recent crime trends in the region. We’ll also assess how governments have been responding – some choose to disengage altogether, while others toughen their approach. Our guest is Jeremy McDermott, one of the founders of InSight Crime, a think tank and publication that produces in-depth reports and analysis on international crime in Latin America.

Less than three months away from Mexico's elections, many analysts see it as a given that Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner, is likely to win. Sheinbaum’s biggest asset is the endorsement of the current president, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador, known as AMLO, who seems to be transferring his popularity to her candidacy. But there are still a lot of questions about this race and about the candidates. Is there any chance that the opposition candidate Xochitl Gálvez could still pull this off? What defines these two candidates? How might Claudia Sheinbaum be different from López Obrador once she’s elected, in style, and in areas such as energy and security? How is Mexico’s next president likely to interact with the United States, especially given Donald Trump’s past and current rhetoric about Mexico? In this episode, political commentator Carlos Bravo Regidor takes the temperature of the political climate in Mexico. 

The goal of building ties between global south countries has driven foreign policy in Latin America and elsewhere in recent years. In this episode we dive into what that has amounted to. What have been the most successful examples of cooperation between Latin America and other global south countries? Which presidents have prioritized this, and what's their motivation? What are the challenges or barriers hindering effective cooperation between Latin America and other global south countries? And what does this agenda mean for countries of the global north? Our guest is Andrea Ordóñez, Senior Research Fellow at Southern Voice.

Political instability persists in Peru. This week, Prime Minister Alberto Otarola resigned and Congress is expected to decide if it will remove the members of the Junta Nacional de Justicia, a body that helps select the composition of the judiciary. This is just the latest in a crisis that has been running for years – Peru famously has had six presidents in seven years. Some Peruvians say their democracy is under threat. What’s the best framework to think about the kind of democratic backsliding we are witnessing there? What are the forces driving this? And what are the real risks of such instability’s for Peru’s economy? This week we take a broad look at these trends with Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Since he took office in January 2023 Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been extremely active on the global stage, traveling frequently and offering himself as a mediator on big issues like the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as the territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana. At times he has stirred controversy, as was the case with recent remarks on the war in Gaza. On today’s podcast, an analysis of Brazil’s foreign policy as the country prepares to host the G20 summit later this year. What are the country's goals, to what extent has it achieved them and what can we expect moving forward? Our guest is Fernanda Magnotta, a Senior Fellow at the Brazilian Center for International Relations and a professor and coordinator of the International Relations Program at Fundação Armando Alvares Penteado in São Paulo.