This Week In Brazil

LGBTQ+ rights have been a political battleground between social conservatives and progressives throughout Latin America. While some countries set the standards for greater freedoms at the beginning of the century, a backlash has recently been gaining ground in some portions of the Western Hemisphere. No doubt, the situation is complex. Today, in our podcast, we will give an overview of LGBTQ+ issues in the region, how they intersect with politics, and where they’re headed in years to come.

Javier Milei came into office in Argentina promising radical changes. Once there, Milei moved quickly and aggressively – through decrees and an “omnibus” bill sent to Congress he pushed changes to more than 300 laws. While the decrees are still valid, the omnibus bill failed to get approved. On today’s podcast we’ll try to take stock of where Argentina stands now. What is the future of Milei's proposed reforms? What is the status of his political support after a little more than 2 months in office? How is the opposition organizing? And where have these past couple of months left the Argentine economy? Our guest is political risk analyst Juan Cruz Díaz.

Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee, and polls show him with a chance of winning the election in November. With that in mind, in this episode we try to gauge what Trump 2.0 would entail for U.S. policy toward Latin America. Our guest is the former U.S. ambassador to the OAS (Organization of American States) under Trump, Carlos Trujillo. Trujillo continues to speak to the former president and is seen in Washington as an insightful voice on what might happen in Latin America should Trump be elected to another term.

Ecuador has become a critical front in the battle against criminal groups in Latin America. The country's 36-year-old president, Daniel Noboa, has tried to exert authority by arresting thousands of people, pushing for a 'war tax' and calling for a referendum on security matters. Can he succeed? And how is the political landscape likely to evolve in the coming months? Our guest today is Maria Teresa Escobar, a journalist based in Quito. Currently a freelancer, she is one of the founders of the Ecuadorean news website Primicias.

Eight years ago, a consortium led by ExxonMobil discovered offshore oil in Guyana now believed to total at least 11 billion barrels. As a result, Guyana now has more oil reserves per capita than any other country in the world — almost three times as much as Saudi Arabia. This colossal find has led to difficult questions about whether the country can avoid the so-called resource curse – and the effects on climate change. On today’s podcast, an overview of Guyana's economy and how it is handling the challenges of abundance. Our guest is Jay Mandle, professor emeritus of economics at Colgate University and a member of the University of Guyana Green Institute Advisory Board.

The images coming out of Ecuador in the past week were just the latest reminder of the extraordinary power of drug cartels in Latin America. Despite efforts by many governments, the production of cocaine in the region continues to soar, and criminal groups have diversified their practices. In this episode, a look at how leaders around Latin America are responding to this crisis. We’ll discuss whether legalization of some drugs might be politically viable and how drug violence is likely to impact politics in years to come. Our guest is Lucía Dammert, a researcher in the fields of security, criminal organizations and criminal justice reform. Dammert was a presidential adviser to Chile's Gabriel Boric and has also advised governments in Argentina, México and Perú. She's currently a Professor at the Universidad de Santiago de Chile.

In 2023 Latin America’s economies performed better than analysts expected. 2024 also promises growth, although the picture will vary a lot by country. On today’s podcast, we’ll look at which may perform better, which will do worse, what factors could determine success or failure and what may be the impact of elections, which are set to take place in six Latin American nations this year. Our guest is Ariane Ortiz-Bollin, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer for Latin America Credit Strategy and Research, at Moody’s Investors Service.

When Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took office in January 2023, the challenges ahead of him loomed large. A year on, the economy has grown more than expected, at 3%, and his administration has passed a historic tax reform. Nevertheless, the executive's relationship with Brazil's conservative, transactional congress remains a reason for concern. In this episode, one of Brazil's best-sourced political journalists discusses the ups and downs of Lula's first year, the strength of Brazil's conservative movement and  former President Jair Bolsonaro, and the main challenges expected for 2024.

Post-electoral tensions in Guatemala and the territorial spat between Guyana and Venezuela have the Western Hemisphere on alert. We speak to someone uniquely positioned to provide insight into these crises and reflect on how the international community is reacting. Frank Mora is the U.S. ambassador to the Organization of American States (OAS), the Washington-based institution that brings together countries in the Americas. Before assuming his current position, Mora was a Pentagon official in the Barack Obama administration.

One year on from the political crisis that engulfed Peru in December 2022, with protests almost daily on the streets of Lima, the country is still facing a staggering number of risks in both politics and the economy. 12 months after then-President Pedro Castillo tried to illegally dissolve Congress and was removed from office, his replacement, Dina Boluarte, is now facing potential charges related to her government’s heavy-handed repression of protests. On the economic front, most  analysts say Peru is in recession. In this episode, we try to understand what is happening and explore if things will improve soon. Our guest is Luis Miguel Castilla, a political consultant, a former finance minister between 2011 and 2014, and a former ambassador to the United States.

Since being elected on November 19, Javier Milei has changed the tone of some of the more radical policy proposals he campaigned on. He has backtracked on his aggressive rhetoric toward some of Argentina’s largest trading partners, such as Brazil. He has suggested that dollarization may occur not soon. And he had a cordial conversation with Pope Francis, whom he had described as the devil's man on earth. What does this about-face mean? Is a more pragmatic Milei emerging? And if that is the case, what are the circumstances he will face once in office -- what are his key tests ahead? In this episode, a conversation with Eduardo Levy Yeyati, a professor at the School of Government at Torcuato di Tella University in Buenos Aires, on near-term political scenarios as well as a big-picture view of Argentina's structural challenges.

This past week, we started to get a sense of what Mexico's June 2024 general elections will look like. Samuel García, the young governor of Nuevo León, Mexico's industrial powerhouse, announced he will run, while former Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, who was seen as a possible aspirant, said he will not. Although García’s candidacy is seen as a long shot, how might it affect the campaigns of the current favorite, Claudia Sheinbaum, from the governing Morena coalition, and Xóchitl Gálvez, the candidate from the opposition Frente Amplio por México? What does this electoral cycle reveal about the current state of Mexican politics? And what are the factors that could shape the race going forward? Political consultant Carlos Ramírez joins us to explore these and other questions.

Chile’s new constitutional proposal is ready and will be put to a plebiscite on Dec. 17. The document was received earlier week by President Gabriel Boric after a mostly right-wing  Constitutional Council drafted the text. This episode does a political overview of the country. We discuss what this new constitution would change, if approved, and look more broadly at the status of the left and the right, at Gabriel Boric’s political future and the state of the economy. Our guest in Claudia Heiss, Head of Political Science at Universidad de Chile.

After a decade of negative or meager economic expansion, Brazil's GDP is expected to increase by 3.2% in 2023. Significant reforms, such as tax reform, are being discussed, and a modern, green economy could take hold. How successfully is the Lula government handling the economic challenges, and which areas will benefit the most? In this episode, Arminio Fraga, one of Brazil's top policy minds, analyzes the structural dysfunctions at the root of Brazil's economy and suggests ways forward. Fraga, a former president of Brazil’s central bank, is now the chair of the Institute for Health Policy Studies (IEPS).

Amid Argentina's worst economic crisis in more than 20 years, the self-described anarcho-capitalist Javier Milei will now face Economy Minister Sergio Massa in a December 19 runoff to become Argentina’s next president. Both are fighting to attract voters from other candidates’ camps. Can Milei win over moderate voters? Can the governing coalition put Massa over the top with inflation nearing 140%? In this episode, Brian Winter and Ana Iparraguirre explore what’s ahead for Massa and Milei, who might have the upper hand, and how each candidate would govern if elected. Iparraguirre is senior vice president at GBAO, a political strategy consultancy based in Washington. 

In this special edition of the Americas Quarterly Podcast, an interview with Juan S. Gonzalez, the White House's top Latin America official, about the potentially transformative deal announced this week between the U.S. and Venezuela. The U.S. is partially lifting economic sanctions that have been in place for several years on  Nicolás Maduro's regime. In return, Maduro has committed to holding free and fair elections in the second half of 2024. What happens if the Maduro government doesn’t hold up its end of the bargain? Will the opposition's likely candidate, María Corina Machado, be allowed to run? Will these changes improve conditions on the ground in Venezuela? Gonzalez answers these and other questions. He is senior director for the Western Hemisphere at the National Security Council.

After a “lost decade” that saw economies stagnate across Latin America and the Caribbean, a new optimism appears to take hold in some areas. 2023 will be the third consecutive year the IMF and other multilateral institutions have raised their growth forecasts for the region after they proved too pessimistic. Foreign direct investment soared 55% last year to $224 billion, its highest value on record. But the region’s growth rate remains below its potential, trailing other emerging markets in Africa and East Asia. In this episode, former Colombian finance minister Mauricio Cárdenas joins us with an overview of where the potential for growth lies and what are the obstacles to achieving that.

Venezuela is reaching a critical moment as the country's opposition prepares to choose its candidate in primaries on October 22. The winner will run against Nicolás Maduro in a general election next year. On this week's episode, AQ'S Brian Winter speaks to Ana Vanessa Herrero, The Washington Post correspondent in Caracas, about what the opposition and Maduro's endgame could be and how talks with the U.S. on conditions for free and fair elections are playing out as Venezuelans endure an uncertain environment, a recessive economy and an annual inflation above 400%.

Bolivia’s former president Evo Morales has announced he will run again in 2025, likely competing with the current head of the executive, Luis Arce, whom Morales helped elect. The decision is splitting their party. In this episode, we take a big-picture look at the Andean country, how its economy and politics have changed since Morales was forced out of office in 2019, how he has changed and what political consequences his return could bring. We also discuss what to expect from Bolivia's efforts at lithium exploration. Our guest is Raul Peñaranda, an award-winning journalist, the director of the news website Brújula Digital and the president of the La Paz Association of Journalists.

Ecuador is facing many of the same issues we see across Latin America today. Long one of the region’s most peaceful countries, it has recently seen a daunting increase in violence, as international drug cartels use the country as a transit point. It is also immersed in a debate about how and whether to exploit its oil and minerals, during an era of rapid climate change. Politics have been unstable this year. In October there will be a runoff for a new president to serve out the rest of Guillermo Lasso’s term, after he invoked a constitutional mechanism that triggered fresh elections for both the presidency and the legislature. In this episode, Brian Winter and Will Freeman discuss the two candidates, Luisa González and Daniel Noboa, and how Ecuador might fit into wider regional trends when it comes to ideological tendencies and environmental issues. Freeman, a columnist for Americas Quarterly, is a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) and a political scientist.