This Week In Brazil

Mexico’s economy is shifting into a higher gear in 2023, thanks in part to stronger than expected investment from nearshoring. This July, we saw a historic moment as Mexico passed China to become the biggest exporter of goods to the United States, reclaiming that title for the first time in 20 years. What does this transformation mean in practice for Mexico's industrial hubs? Is the country taking full advantage of the nearshoring trend, or could it be doing more? What is the relevance of politics and the 2024 elections to investors' decisions? Our guests today are two Bloomberg journalists who recently reported from the industrial hub of Monterey, in the north of Mexico: Maya Averbuch, an Economy and Government Reporter based in Mexico City, and Leda Alvim, Markets Reporter at Bloomberg News, based in São Paulo. 

This month will mark the 50th anniversary of Augusto Pinochet’s coup in Chile. President Gabriel Boric has made the commemoration of that tragic chapter in Latin American history a major moment in his government, taking several initiatives to atone for the past, but the right is pushing back, at a moment when public opinion about the coup is changing. In 2005, an average of 24% thought that the military was right in carrying out the coup. In 2023, that number has risen to 36%. In the background is Chile's turbulent recent history: the massive protests that took place in 2019, the pandemic, an economic downturn, a security crisis, the rejection of last year’s proposed constitution and the ongoing attempt at drafting a new one. In such a context, how are we to interpret such poll numbers? What do discussions about the coup say about the state of politics in Chile today? And what does this moment mean for the country's future? Robert Funk, assistant professor of political science at the University of C

Recent scandals involving former President Jair Bolsonaro have left Brazil’s conservative movement in a state of flux. Meanwhile, the Lula administration is off to a relatively calm and successful start, with a 60% approval rating, the economy expected to grow more than predicted and inflation under control. What does that mean for the country’s politics going forward? In this episode, Brian Winter is joined by Fábio Zanini, editor of the “Painel” political column at Folha de S. Paulo, who has spent years covering the conservative movement that brought Bolsonaro to power. They discuss what to expect from the opposition and what the current political climate in Brasília means for President Lula's economic agenda.

This is a critical moment for Latin America’s economies, with analysts foreseeing better than expected GDP growth this year in countries like Brazil and Mexico. The outlook, however, is uneven. In Argentina, Peru and Chile, there are big questions about where economies are headed, largely because of politics. In today’s episode, an overview of what to expect in upcoming months — where the risks lie, where there might be reasons for optimism and how external factors, like China’s growing economic problems, could affect the region. Our guest is Ernesto Revilla, head of Latin America economics at Citigroup.

The radical libertarian economist Javier Milei placed first in Argentina’s primary election, upsetting the two-party system of the past 20 years. Milei describes climate change as a socialist lie, advocates for closing the central bank and chastises Argentina’s political class as a self-dealing 'caste'. Milei's success echoes that of recent outsiders on the right like Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, both of whom Milei has said he admires. In this episode, Brian Winter and political analyst and professor Ignacio Labaqui examine what explains his rise and if he actually has a chance to win when the real voting takes place in October. They also discuss the possible paths forward for the other candidates, Sergio Massa, of the governing Peronist coalition, and Patricia Bullrich, of the center-right party of former president Mauricio Macri.

Latin America is the world’s most vulnerable region to cyberattacks, according to one study, and has suffered several dramatic hacks recently in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and elsewhere. In this episode, Randy Pestana, Associate Director of Cyber Policy Program at Jack D. Gordon Institute for Public Policy, Florida International University, tells the stories of some of the region's biggest attacks in recent years and explains why some countries are particularly vulnerable, who is responsible for the attacks and what governments, companies and individuals can and should do to protect themselves. 

Bernardo Arévalo, an academic, former diplomat, and son of a famed revolutionary president surprisingly made it to Guatemala's election runoff, upsetting the country's ruling elites. What could happen next? Is his candidacy in jeopardy? Who makes up the group that Guatemalans refer to as the 'pacto de corruptos' trying to undermine the nation's democracy? Is the U.S. using its influence to push for free and fair elections in Guatemala? In this conversation, former ambassador Stephen McFarland discusses how power operates in the country where he lived and worked for years and an election he describes as the most surprising in recent Central American history.

Argentina's presidential elections will take place in October, but the country is now fully in campaign mode. In this episode, AQ's Brian Winter and María Esperanza Casullo discuss surprising recent developments, such as the ruling coalition's decision to back Economy Minister Sergio Massa as their candidate, and the apparent decline in support for the right-wing libertarian Javier Milei. They dissect the chances for the main contestants, and whether any of them would be able to rescue Argentina from its long stretch of economic troubles and take advantage of the country’s potential as a source of oil and gas, lithium, and other commodities. Casullo, who is based in the southern province of Neuquén, also describes what the election looks like outside the Buenos Aires metropolitan area.

In the 2010s, corruption investigations dominated news headlines in Latin America, from Lava Jato in Brazil to La Línea in Guatemala. Nowadays, prosecutors, activists and journalists across the region continue their work of holding powerful politicians and business leaders to account, but they face a more difficult environment. That's the conclusion of the fifth edition of the Capacity to Combat Corruption (CCC) Index, produced by the Americas Society/Council of the Americas and Control Risks. In this episode, Geert Aalbers, a partner at Control Risks, explores some of the reasons behind these challenges and discusses the delicate status of anti-corruption efforts in places like Brazil, Mexico and Guatemala. Aalbers also explains why countries like Uruguay, Chile and Costa continue to rank high on the index and describes how Panama and the Dominican Republic improved their scores. 

It’s been a mixed bag so far for Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva after six months back in office, with a better than expected economy, but a tough relationship with the conservative Congress. In this episode, Brian Winter and political analyst Thomas Traumann discuss why economists have increased their Brazil GDP growth forecasts since the year started, what to expect from economic policy moving forward and why, in Traumann's opinion, environmental policy will be the key battleground for the Lula administration. Traumann is a journalist and independent consultant. He worked as a minister in the Dilma Rousseff government (2011-2016) and maintains contacts with a variety of political voices across the ideological spectrum.

Global supply chains have become much more fluid in the past year, and some of this itinerant money is making its way to Latin America. Mexico has benefitted, but how have other countries, such as Colombia, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia and Brazil fared? In this episode, Shannon K. O'Neil, author of The Globalization Myth: Why Regions Matter, discusses Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s policies, what industries and countries hold most potential when it comes to trade and nearshoring, what the challenges are for further progress and what the U.S. could do to encourage more investments.

The Colombian political world has been shaken by the eruption of a scandal that led the country's attorney general to launch an investigation into reports of alleged illegal financing of President Gustavo Petro's election campaign. In this episode, Laura Lizarazo, a senior analyst at Control Risks, evaluates the consequences of this to Petro's leadership and his proposed reforms to healthcare, labor laws and more. She also takes stock of changes to Colombia's energy sector, discusses the challenges to paz total and assesses the state of Colombia's economy more broadly.

The race to replace President Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico is starting to heat up. While his party, Morena, is in good position to win, a competition has begun for who its candidate will be. In this episode, political scientist Carlos Bravo Regidor analyzes the stakes, the favorites, the state of the opposition and what it all mean for Latin America’s second-largest economy. He also discusses what he expects from AMLO, as the president in known, in his last 18 months in office.

It’s been two decades since China started to trade and invest heavily in Latin America, and in that time, the terms of the relationship have changed.  There has been a move into clean energy and more long-term investments in infrastructure, including electrical grids. In this episode, Brian Winter and Rebecca Ray look at where the relationship is at and where it’s headed. They discuss Chinese and Latin American goals, what the latest numbers on trade and investment mean, as well as potential stumbling blocks for the development of the partnership. Ray is Senior Academic Researcher at the Boston University Global Development Policy Center. She produces the annual China-Latin America Economic Bulletin series and the China’s Overseas Development Finance Database.

Migration in the Americas is not a new story, but it is evolving fast. Countries that used to be senders of migrants are now also becoming recipients – Chile, Peru, Colombia, Brazil. Traditionally Latin America has had mostly welcoming policies towards migrants, but there are signs that could change in some countries. In the episode, AQ's Brian Winter speaks with Andrew Seele, President of the Migration Policy Institute, about migration trends and the countries where this has become a politically salient issue. Seele argues that there has been a hardening of positions, but there have also been successful attempts at integration.

From the outside looking in, it’s hard to understand what is happening in Venezuela these days. On the one hand Nicolás Maduro seems stronger than he’s been in years. The Venezuelan economy seems to have bottomed out, after years of terrible crisis. And the opposition is divided and struggling to connect with the Venezuelan people. On the other, the opposition and the Maduro government are back at the negotiating table and there is a sense that elections scheduled for 2024 might improve the political climate, even if those involved know that those elections won’t be free and fair. On this week's episode, AQ's Brian Winter spoke to The Washington Post's Ana Vanessa Herrero about how Venezuelans are faring economically, how most people see the Maduro regime and the latest developments in the Venezuelan opposition as they prepare for primaries and elections.

Chile’s politics have been turned upside down once again, as an election last Sunday gave the political right almost full control over the writing of a new Constitution. A little more than a year ago, the country seemed to be undergoing a progressive transformation, after waves of protests, the arrival of a left-wing, young president, Gabriel Boric, and plans for what was supposed to be an expansive new Constitution. In this episode, political scientist Patricio Navia explains why the electorate’s mood seems to have shifted and what these developments mean for the political and economic future of Chile. Navia is a professor at both New York University and at Universidad Diego Portales, and a member of Americas Quarterly’s editorial board.

 What happens in Paraguayan politics matters not only to people who live there, but for the rest of the region and the world. It’s a member of Mercosur, at a time when that bloc’s future is in flux, and a key part of the rising strategic competition between the U.S. and China in the region — Paraguay remains one of a few nations who still recognize Taiwan. In recent elections, the country went against a regional wave of anti-incumbency sentiment by choosing a candidate of the ruling Colorado party, which has been in power for almost all of the past seven decades. In this episode, we do an overview of Paraguay, looking at the consequences of elections to the rest of Latin America, how it fits into the growing U.S.-China competition, and why Paraguayan voters bucked a 5-year-long regional trend by voting for more of the same. Our guest is Julieta Heduvan, a Paraguayan foreign policy analyst and author of Paraguay, Política Exterior e Integración Regional. 

The return of Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is a potential game-changer for Latin America. No other leader in the region is as experienced and has such a large global profile. Lula is in a position to lead on key issues such as climate, regional trade integration and the growing confrontation between the U.S. and China. However, the path to an influential international role is full of obstacles. In this episode, Brian Winter and Oliver Stuenkel discuss what to expect on foreign policy from Lula's third term as president. In the process, they analyze the meaning and the consequences of Lula's recent comments about the war in Ukraine. 

In Guatemala, economic growth has done little to improve poverty and inequality. Violence continues to drive people to leave the country. Democracy is also in decline, as successive governments have undermined institutions, jailed journalists and forced independent prosecutors and judges into exile. In these conditions, one might expect candidates in upcoming presidential elections to stand for change. Yet the leading ones share similarities with the current president. What explains this? In this episode, investigative journalist Claudia Méndez Arriaza describes how elites control  the political and judicial systems in order to maintain power in their own hands. She also talks about hopes for change. Méndez Arriaza currently works with ConCriterio.