This Week In Brazil

El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele's hard-line security policies have contributed to a decline in homicides and extortion in El Salvador, but at a very high cost to human rights and democratic freedoms. Despite that, many in the region see this as a model to emulate and are vowing to implement similar policies. Is Bukelismo the wave of the future throughout the region? How should those who disagree with Bukele's strategy react and provide an antidote within the boundaries of the rule of law? Tamara Taraciuk Broner, deputy Americas director at Human Rights Watch, answers these and other questions in this week's episode.

Argentina is approaching October elections with an annual inflation above 100%, poverty levels at around 40% and the possibility of tipping into recession again. However, the political class is mostly united in trying to avoid the worst, according to our guest, political risk consultant Juan Cruz Diaz. Juan also argues that there is a sense of opportunity for the medium term, as a gas pipeline comes online probably sometime this year and interesting energy projects move forward.

Latin America’s transition away from fossil fuels is well underway, with an average 60% of renewables in its power mix. If the region can continue down this road, and incorporate new technology in areas like green hydrogen, it can become a true leader in the global energy transition and unlock a new era of green jobs and economic growth. But there are barriers, and politics can get in the way. In this episode, we get an overview of the status of different countries in the energy transition and where the challenges and best opportunities are. Our guest, energy analyst Luisa Palacios, argues that investing in clean energy is important for environmental reasons, but it is also a crucial tool for economic development.

 Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s third term as president of Brazil will soon reach its 100-day mark. The specters of Jair Bolsonaro’s constant attacks on institutions and the insurrection in Brasília on January 8 still loom. The economy is fragile. And there are disputes inside Lula’s party regarding how to address these and other issues. In this episode, we take a long view to try to understand Lula’s recent actions and what they mean for Brazil. Our guest is Celso Rocha de Barros, author of PT, uma história, a history of Lula’s Workers' Party. Rocha de Barros is a sociologist and a columnist for Folha de S.Paulo. The book is yet to be translated into English. 

 At a moment when Nicolás Maduro commemorates 10 years in power in Venezuela, the opposition has agreed to participate in presidential elections in 2024, marking a change to their previous strategy of boycotting them. The United States has spent the past decade trying different measures to remove the Maduro dictatorship for office, most notably in 2019 recognizing opposition leader Juan Guaidó as the country’s interim president, a tactic that did not succeed. Now that the opposition is united, the U.S. should support their decision to move forward with elections, even if they are not ultimately free and fair. That’s what this week’s guests argue, and they call for a bipartisan approach to this support. Juan Cruz was the top official on Latin America at the White House at the beginning of the Trump administration and Mark Feierstein held that same job at the end of the Obama years. 

Colombia's president, Gustavo Petro, is going through a rocky period in his administration. There have been challenges on the security front. The handling of a proposed healthcare reform has created fissures in his cabinet, most significantly the departure of Alejandro Gaviria, a minister for education, who represented the technocratic faction of the cabinet. In the meantime, Petro's family members are being accused of corruption. A slower economy and inflation of above 13% a year are not helping – Petro’s popularity levels have fallen below 50%. Critics say the president could turn more intolerant of dissent moving forward. What Petro should we expect to see from now on? In this episode, we discuss this with journalist and policy analyst Mariana Palau. Palau also shares her analysis of the government’s paz total program and changes to energy policy.

More than 100,000 Mexicans protested last weekend against President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's proposed changes to the country's electoral institute. The marches highlight the leader's relative vulnerability, despite his enduring approval ratings above 60%. Indeed, while the path may seem open for AMLO, as the president is known, to overhaul the country's electoral institute and bring to power a candidate of his choosing in the 2024 elections, there are judicial and political obstacles to AMLO's plans, argues this week's guest. In this episode, Luis Rubio, chairman of the think tank México Evalúa, discusses AMLO’s current situation and the consequences for Mexico’s economy, 2024 presidential elections, and its relationship with the United States. 

Organized crime has shaped people's lives in places like Mexico, Colombia and Brazil for decades. Recently, historically calmer places like Chile, Ecuador and even Uruguay have started seeing a rise in violence. What is driving this trend? In this episode, we do a broad overview of what's happening in transnational crime in the region and look at the individual dynamics in a number of countries. Our guest is Jeremy McDermott, one of the founders of InSight Crime, a think tank and publication that produces in-depth reports and analysis on international crime in Latin America.

Ecuador's conservative president Guillermo Lasso had his work cut out for him when he came into office in 2021. Elected partly because of a split in the Ecuadorean left, he had a weak mandate from the start. Last year, Lasso's government survived a major challenge from protests across the country. Now, another blow: voters defeated a referendum of constitutional amendments proposed by Lasso. Also, opposition candidates won municipal elections in key cities. Will Lasso finish his term? What does the crisis mean for Ecuador's economy? What do Ecuadorians want from their government?  In this episode, Brian Winter and political analyst Sebastián Hurtado assess the outlook in Ecuador and how it relates to events elsewhere in the region. 

In many ways, Uruguay is in a class of its own in Latin America. The country has the region's highest per capita income, its lowest poverty rate and among its lowest levels of inequality. Uruguay’s energy matrix is the region’s greenest and its economy is forecast to grow a healthy 3.6%. In a time of extreme polarization in Latin America and the rest of the world, its political culture is marked by civility. The new issue of Americas Quarterly is about Uruguay and what we can all learn from what is arguably Latin America’s greatest modern success story. In this episode, Brian Winter and journalist Martín Aguirre, head of El País, discuss how Uruguay got there, the limitations of this success and where the country is headed.

With the election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for a third term in Brazil, the international community expects the country to curb the aggressive deforestation and criminal activity seen in the Amazon in recent years. The path ahead will require astute political negotiations, argues this week's guest, Ilona Szabó, the founder of Instituto Igarapé, a think tank focused on security and development. Ilona talks to us about her expectations for Brazil's incoming government, prospects for cooperation with other Amazon nations, such as Peru and Venezuela, and how the private sector should navigate investment in the region moving forward.

Peru's crisis continues to rage, with protests almost daily on the streets of Lima. A long history of issues explains the current situation. Peru’s economic model brought growth and reduced poverty, but fell short of truly enfranchising the country’s most marginalized; the country’s political parties are considered by many to be dysfunctional. In this episode, Brian Winter and Luis Miguel Castilla, a former finance minister of Peru between 2011 and 2014, analyze what brought the country here and assess what might come next. Castilla argues for a middle ground that addresses the legitimate demands of Peruvian society for greater social protections and rights without throwing out the economic framework that allowed Peru to grow almost uninterruptedly for decades.

 Following attacks on Brazil’s capital, the focus is on putting the country back together. The challenges are immense and wide-ranging: how to deal with security forces, parts of which supported insurrectionists, and how to handle Brazil’s growing radicalized groups, without overreacting and deepening division in an already polarized public. In this episode, Brian Winter and Patricia Campos Mello analyze the current political scenario, taking stock of the insurrection and looking ahead to what it means for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's governability, as well as the challenges he will face in other areas. Patricia, a journalist at Folha de S.Paulo, Brazil’s leading newspaper, is one of the country’s most respected reporters and an expert on the intersection of social media and politics, as well as Brazilian foreign affairs. 

U.S. President Joe Biden is in Mexico this week, at a time when the administration is facing a host of issues around Latin America. In this special episode, Brian Winter and the White House's Juan Gonzalez discuss a number of them: disputes with the Mexican government over energy policy; changes in the Venezuelan opposition; new developments in the relationship with Cuba; expectations for Brazil's incoming government and what, if anything, defines Biden's approach to Latin America today.

 In the last two decades, China has been a fundamental part of Latin America's economies. But the relationship is far from static. In today’s episode, we’ll look at how trade and investment flows changed in recent years and explore Beijing’s goals in the region. Our guest, Felipe Larraín, is a former two-time finance minister of Chile and a professor of economics at Universidad Católica de Chile. He evaluates recent trends and future trajectories for direct investment, official lending, trade and infrastructure; analyzes how the region's countries should, in his opinion, position themselves in the China-U.S. dispute; and discusses what has surprised him the most about Sino-Latin America ties. 

After over 30 years, Argentines can finally say, once again, that they are the world's football champions. The victory brought millions to the streets in celebration, at a time when the country is going through economic and political troubles. What does it feel like to be there this week? What consequences, if any, could this have for the economy and for politics? Will the atmosphere of national unity witnessed in recent days soothe tensions in a highly polarized society? In this episode, Argentine political scientist and football fan María Esperanza Casullo, a professor at the National University of Río Negro, shares her reflections after her country's third World Cup win.

 In this episode, Brian Winter and Alberto Ramos, head of Latin America economic research at Goldman Sachs, assess the state of the region's economies as we head into 2023. Why were numbers for 2022 better than expected, and why didn’t it feel that way for many? What should governments do to avoid headwinds in 2023? How might external factors, such as the war in Ukraine, economic activity in China and U.S. interest rates impact Latin American finances? Hear Ramos’ expectations for Latin America as a whole and specific analysis on Brazil, Colombia, Argentina, Peru and Chile.  

It’s been a difficult decade for much of Latin America, but there are also some causes for optimism. As 2022 draws to a close, Moisés Naím, one of the region’s most respected and followed political commentators, provides an overview of where things stand. In a conversation with Brian Winter, Naím discusses the struggles of democracy, as well as recent developments in Venezuela, his home country. Naím is the author of the book The Revenge of Power, which chronicles the rise of autocratic leaders in recent years and was recently named by the New Yorker magazine as one of the best books of 2022. He is a Distinguished Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a columnist for El País and a member of Americas Quarterly’s editorial board.

Recent protests have illuminated a political divide in Mexico. First, thousands took to the streets to protest against President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's plan to overhaul the country's elections authority, the INE, or Instituto Nacional Electoral. Two weeks later, AMLO himself called a march to celebrate his four years in office, a move read by many as an attempt to showcase political strength. Why are some critics calling this a "make-or-break" moment for Mexican democracy? In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, Brian Winter and political commentator Carlos Bravo Regidor discuss what is at stake in the confrontation over the INE, what to expect from the 2024 elections and Mexico’s relationship with the United States.

 Memories of the December 2001 protests in Argentina arise whenever the country's social, economic and political crises deepen. Now, conditions are ripe for restlessness: inflation is nearing 100%, there are protests in the streets and the political scenario is convoluted. Could Argentina be close to another moment of social upheaval, similar to what happened in December 2001? In this episode, Brian Winter discusses popular discontent, the 2023 elections and Argentine foreign relations with Benjamin Gedan, deputy director of the Latin American Program at the Wilson Center, the director of its Argentina Project and a former South America director on the White House National Security Council during the Obama administration.