This Week In Brazil

The election in Brazil is over, but the country remains divided and there are considerable challenges ahead for President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. In this episode, Brian Winter speaks with political reporter and columnist for O Globo newspaper Malu Gaspar about how a possible institutional rupture was averted, what Lula's priorities will be and what he will face while trying to reunite Brazil's political class and address the country's economic, social and environmental problems.

Millennials account for 23% of Latin America’s population, or roughly 155 million people. Two of them are already at the helm of their countries, Gabriel Boric in Chile and Nayib Bukele in El Salvador. They represent starkly different political projects - the latter more authoritarian, the former, democratic. Which vision is more likely to prevail in the coming years? How is this generation changing politics in the region? In this episode, Andrea Moncada, a millennial Peruvian journalist and the author of a piece that tries to answer that question joins Brian Winter to discuss who are millennials in politics, how their priorities differ from that of previous generations and what their ascendancy means for the future of the region.

The spread of evangelical Christianity is changing politics in Brazil, Peru, Chile, Bolivia and elsewhere in Latin America. In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, we do an examination of how far this has gone in a number of countries, from Brazil to Guatemala, and what it means for future elections in the region. Our guest, Professor Taylor Boas, is the author of Evangelicals and Electoral Politics in Latin America: A Kingdom of This World, which is expected to be published in February. Professor Boas argues that we are likely to see a stronger alliance between evangelicals and Catholics, and that while there have been electoral successes, evangelicals may actually be losing the culture wars in the region.

The backsliding of democracy is a reality in many parts of the world, and Central America has been no exception. Nicaragua is under an authoritarian regime. El Salvador’s President has announced he will run for reelection despite his country’s constitution forbidding it. And even in Costa Rica, once seen as a bastion of stability, there have been worrying signs. What is pushing this trend in the region, and what are the efforts to reverse it? In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, Brian Winter and former President of Costa Rica Luis Guillermo Solís analyze the political scenario in Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras, Costa Rica and Guatemala.

Cuba is facing a mixture of short-term and long-term problems. Hurricane Ian has devastated the island. This came amid a long period of setbacks, including a deep economic contraction and a severe migration crisis. In recent weeks, Cubans have taken to the streets. Is the country headed for even greater instability? How, if at all, could the relationship with the United States change? And is there an existential risk to the Cuban government itself? In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, Brian Winter speaks to political scientist Javier Corrales about the island's predicament and what might happen next.

Brazil's election results were much tighter than many predicted and former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and President Jair Bolsonaro are headed to a runoff on October 30. Although Lula is still a slight favorite, Bolsonaro has received key endorsements and bolsonarismo showed its strength, winning majorities in the House and the Senate as well as key governorships. In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, Brian Winter speaks to Sarah Maslin, Brazil correspondent for The Economist, about what explains the results and what we can expect from the campaign moving forward.

Colombian President Gustavo Petro was elected promising huge reforms. But since taking office, he has given mixed signals regarding how far, and how fast, his government might change Colombia’s economy, society and role in the world. Will the country’s class structure be significantly altered? Will there be a shift in drug policy? Will Colombia drop oil and coal from its energy matrix? And how much support do his proposals have? In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, Ricardo Ávila, senior analyst for the newspaper El Tiempo, takes stock of Petro’s first months as head of state and assesses how transformative his presidency could be.

As the dust begins to settle on Chileans’ emphatic rejection of their proposed new constitution, the political class has started negotiations for a new process. What provisions is the new charter likely to contain? Who might write it? Where does the rejection leave the young leftist president Gabriel Boric, and what will happen to Chile’s troubled economy amid such uncertainty? Isabel Aninat, Dean of the Faculty of Law at Adolfo Ibáñez University, answers these and other questions on this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast.

Brazil’s election is now entering its final stage, and President Jair Bolsonaro is consistently trailing former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. If the trend prevails, will Bolsonaro concede? Many in Brazil think he will not. In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, veteran political analyst Thomas Traumman examines the final weeks of the campaign and what could happen next. He discusses the latest poll numbers, Bolsonaro's narrowing options for victory, the crucial roles of gender and religion in the race, as well as what to expect from the military if Bolsonaro contests the results.

There is an unmistakable trend in Latin American politics today: the left is in charge in some of the region’s largest countries — Chile, Bolivia, Argentina, Colombia and Mexico. Brazil, the biggest economy, could soon join this cohort if former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the October election. This in many ways recalls the original pink tide of the 2000s. In this episode of The Americas Quarterly Podcast, international relations expert Oliver Stuenkel discusses what he expects from this new wave of leaders and what they represent for the region’s major economies and diplomatic relationships. He also gives his assessment of the presidential campaign in Brazil and what a Lula victory could mean for the region and for the new pink tide.

It has surprised many that there have been more disagreements between the US and Mexico under a Democratic presidency than under a Republican one. What explains this? Is the relationship, so critical to both countries, at risk of a genuine deterioration? What can we expect from Andrés Manuel López Obrador as he tries to navigate a weakened economy, rising violence and the upcoming 2024 elections? Professor, political analyst, writer and activist Denise Dresser takes on these and others questions in this episode of the Americas Quarterly Podcast.

Colombia’s Gustavo Petro will take office on August 7 with a lot on his plate. The country’s first ever leftist president has promised substantial reforms to Colombia’s economy and society. Polls show Colombians are optimistic and expectations are high. How much will it be possible to achieve? How pragmatic will a Petro government be and what are his odds of success? In this episode of the Americas Quarterly podcast, journalist Mariana Palau discusses the incoming government’s situation in Congress, as well as plans for the economy and peace in Colombia. Palau is a reporter with BluRadio and a Master of Public Policy candidate at Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government.

The surprise resignation of Argentina’s economy minister has raised concerns of an even deeper political and economic crisis. Where is the country headed? In this episode of the Americas Quarterly Podcast, María Esperanza Casullo, a political scientist and professor at the National University of Río Negro, explores what is behind the resignation, what can be expected from the new minister and from next year's presidential election, as well as why Argentina is not ripe for “outsider” candidates like much of the western world.

Across Latin America, talk is turning to the possibility of a global recession. How vulnerable is the region, and which countries might do better than others? In this AQ Podcast, Ernesto Revilla, head of Latin America economics at Citigroup, gives us an overview of the region’s economies, challenges like inflation and rising interest rates, and what the impact might be on politics, especially in countries with new governments like Colombia, Chile and Peru.

Colombia’s June 19 runoff between two strongly anti-establishment candidates tells us a lot about what’s happening in today’s Latin America, says Luis Alberto Moreno, a veteran observer of the region’s politics and former president of the Inter-American Development Bank. In this conversation, Moreno takes a long view of political developments, analyzing recent progress and setbacks. He discusses populism, inequality, economic growth and challenges to cooperation and trade between Latin American countries. Moreno does nevertheless have a glass-half-full perspective on the region, as outlined in a recent book. Moreno shares with the AQ podcast his reasons for optimism.

A modest degree of change appears to be underway in Venezuela. There are signs that a years-long economic crisis may finally have bottomed out. And the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro looks set to return to negotiations with opposition leaders after calling off talks last October. How much if any hope should these developments generate for a potential political and economic opening? What do they mean for Venezuela's relationships with the U.S. and other international actors? And what's the long game for chavismo as Maduro's government faces pressure at home and abroad? Raúl Stolk, director of the news site Caracas Chronicles, joins the AQ podcast for an in-depth conversation on Venezuela's future.

In the past year Haiti has lived through the assassination of a president, multiple natural disasters and an exodus of people. Now, a simmering political crisis has put pressure on the country's leadership and raised questions about how it will chart a path toward new elections. What role should the international community play in helping Haiti find a way forward? What are the limitations of U.S. involvement? Monique Clesca, a journalist and member of the Commission to Search for a Haitian Solution to the Crisis, joins the AQ Podcast to provide an overview of where the country stands today.

Despite a host of challenges, Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro appears to be in a stronger position to win re-election in October than many expected. Though still trailing in polls to former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Bolsonaro has started to close the gap in recent weeks. What's behind this shift, and how might Lula respond as the campaign progresses? Joining the AQ podcast is Fábio Zanini, a columnist at Folha de S. Paulo who has spent years covering the conservative movement that brought Bolsonaro to power.

It's shaping up as another difficult year in Latin America for freedom of the press, judicial independence and separation of powers. From El Salvador to Peru to Mexico and beyond, fundamental rights are under pressure. What's behind the backsliding, and what can be done to push the region's democracies in the right direction? Tamara Taraciuk Broner, acting Americas director at Human Rights Watch, joins the AQ podcast for a tour of trouble spots around the region.

Gustavo Petro is polling well in the run-up to Colombia's first-round presidential election on May 29. But recent events suggest the former mayor of Bogotá might struggle to bring more moderate voters to his side. What concessions is he willing to make to build bridges to the center and center-left? And which of his competitors is best positioned to close the gap in the weeks ahead? Joining the AQ podcast this week to offer an unvarnished look at the race and how the frontrunners might govern is Miguel Silva, the founder of Galileo 6, a strategic communications, political and crisis management firm based in Bogotá, Colombia.